Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
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Resolves according to whether something like the scenario Dario describes here has come to pass, at least through mid-2027, in a way that seems like it has counter-factually decreased AI capabilities at that time relative to if it hadn't happened. I expect only Anthropic and OpenAI need to agree to this.
Still resolves YES if the agreement is not voluntary (e.g. the government imposes this upon the labs)
Resolves by a poll of Manifold users created within a week of the resolution time
https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier#why-pace-
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