Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true
I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.
It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.
Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Date: Next week
These events could occur before the end of 2024, although profoundly unlikely.
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@zsig
I intend to N/A this option. My main concern is that Israel has reported both people killed and people with minor injuries from the attacks, but reporting from Iran seems to be almost exclusively just the people killed (and I don't speak Persian, so I'm not able to browse Iranian news sites efficiently).
This creates an unfair comparison and makes it difficult to know which way this should resolve. Based only on Wikipedia it should resolve NO, if you extrapolate the number of injuries from the 4 killed in Iran versus 2 killed in Israel it should resolve YES, N/A seems fair here.
@mods Can't N/A: "APIError: Negative payouts too large for resolution. Contact admin or mod."
This market is turning out to be very annoying to resolve.
"Israel launches missiles at Tehran"
from Wikipedia: An Iranian news agency associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reported that military installations in western and southwestern Tehran, as well as bases in the Ilam and Khuzestan provinces, were attacked.
Inclined to resolve YES based on this, but I can't actually find the source, and this doesn't prove that they fired missiles specifically.
"An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action"
Comment thread below indicates potential YES resolution, but I have no way to gauge the reliability. Inclined to resolve NO but can't find sources either way
"Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure in October"
Reporting seems to indicate that Israel struck air defense systems near energy infrastructure, but not the infrastructure itself, so leaning NO?
"Israeli response will physically hurt more people than the Iranian attack"
This should probably resolve YES, but once again, I can't find sources. Wikipedia actually lists 6 casualties for the Iranian attack and 5 for the Israeli one, but I remember doing some research and finding conflicting information somewhere, at some point. Not sure what to do with this one.
If anyone has any sources for any of this, please list them now. If you ignore this comment and then complain about the resolution I will laugh at you
@SaviorofPlant You'be been handling this well imho. Speaking for myself (disclaimer: I'd make a profit with your intended resolutions): I won't complain.
Note that there's also N/A, which I'd prefer (disclaimer: I'd lose expected gains with an N/A resolution).
If you ignore this comment and then complain about the resolution I will laugh at you
That's not nice, as most of us invest in tens or hundreds of markets, so we can't track the comments in each of them, thus we don't know about comments like these. Possible solution: I think a mod can notify @traders
@SaviorofPlant My suggestion - consider for yourself what a reliable source is, and resolve based on that.
If there is no reliable source for a question, resolve to the likely outcome based on the totality of the available information. N/A should be chosen if you feel that the evidence provided until now really points equally to both directions.
@aleven Next week since technically these things could all happen before the end of 2024 still (although profoundly unlikely)
https://x.com/tom_bike/status/1851282163351642527
Israel hit at Iran´s largest oil refinery empty oil tank, read messaging, spotted at YESTERDAY satellite image. 30.3547, 48.2861
@VonGadke I don't have the expertise to evaluate whether this is credible. I found some random person disputing this: https://x.com/Eran_Efrat/status/1850949508349465011
Will probably lean NO unless I can get more definitive evidence that doesn't require me to pick which person on Twitter I believe
@RoeyKelner Presumably yes? The Israeli retaliation back in spring used air-launched ballistic missiles apparently (not cruise). This time seems to have been heavy bombs, drones, and missiles. Although have only seen the first two confirmed.
Radar station hit at Nakhjir quite possibly missile strike
@Pjfkh Update, have now seen some analysts say that air launched ballistic missiles again (launched from planes, then climb out of / into upper atmosphere, then re entry, range 2000km) were used in these strikes
@SaviorofPlant This should resolve YES.
The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed militant group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.