What will happen in 2024 relating to the October 1 Iranian missile attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
88
2.2kṀ23k
resolved Jan 30
Resolved
YES
Israel launches missiles at Tehran
Resolved
YES
Iran does not make a confirmed assassination attempt on Trump before the election
Resolved
YES
UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
Resolved
YES
Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) in October
Resolved
N/A
Israeli response will physically hurt more people than the Iranian attack
Resolved
NO
At least 100 casualties in Israel as a result of the missile attack (can be confirmed afterwards)
Resolved
NO
Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) before October 7
Resolved
NO
Iran launches a second attack before October 7
Resolved
NO
Israel formally declares war on Iran
Resolved
NO
Israel assassinates Ayatollah Khamenei
Resolved
NO
Mass protests in Iran
Resolved
NO
A military or civilian plane in Iran or Israel crashes
Resolved
NO
Oil futures (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) reach $80/bbl
Resolved
NO
An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action
Resolved
NO
At least 5000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
Resolved
NO
At least 15000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
Resolved
NO
Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure in October
Resolved
NO
At least 500 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
Resolved
NO
F35 is confirmed destroyed or damaged during strike on Iran
Resolved
NO
US forces strike Iranian forces within Iranian borders

Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true

I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.

It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.

  • Update 2024-25-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Date: Next week

    • These events could occur before the end of 2024, although profoundly unlikely.

Israel
Arab-Israeli Conflict
Iran
Israel-Hamas Conflict
Lebanon
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