What will happen in 2024 relating to the October 1 Iranian missile attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
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81
Ṁ18k
Nov 1
95%
Israeli response will physically hurt more people than the Iranian attack
95%
Iran does not make a confirmed assassination attempt on Trump before the election
89%
Oil futures (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) reach $80/bbl
83%
Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) in October
53%
Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure in October
37%
An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action
35%
Israel strikes Iran’s Navy in October
22%
Mass protests in Iran
21%
F35 is confirmed destroyed or damaged during strike on Iran
18%
A military or civilian plane in Iran or Israel crashes
17%
Israel launches missiles at Tehran
14%
At least 500 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
10%
US forces strike Iranian forces within Iranian borders
9%
Israel formally declares war on Iran
7%
Israel assassinates Ayatollah Khamenei
3%
At least 5000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
3%
At least 100 casualties in Israel as a result of the missile attack (can be confirmed afterwards)
1.6%
At least 15000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
1%
Iran launches a second attack before October 7
Resolved
YES
UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7

Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true

I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.

It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.

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@SaviorofPlant Can be resolved as NO

Israel launches missiles at Tehran

@SaviorofPlant Does it include missiles fired from jets?

There was a strike from Iraq into Israel yesterday, will Israel do anything against that soon?

Mass protests in Iran
bought Ṁ50 Mass protests in Iran NO

@SaviorofPlant Is a rally a protest? If it’s protesting Israel is it a protest?

UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
bought Ṁ500 UN Security Council ... YES

@SaviorofPlant This should resolve YES.

The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed militant group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-chief-warns-tit-for-tat-mideast-violence-must-stop-2024-10-02/