What will happen in 2024 relating to the October 1 Iranian missile attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
Standard
81
Ṁ18kNov 1
1D
1W
1M
ALL
95%
Israeli response will physically hurt more people than the Iranian attack
95%
Iran does not make a confirmed assassination attempt on Trump before the election
89%
Oil futures (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) reach $80/bbl
83%
Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) in October
53%
Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure in October
37%
An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action
35%
Israel strikes Iran’s Navy in October
22%
Mass protests in Iran
21%
F35 is confirmed destroyed or damaged during strike on Iran
18%
A military or civilian plane in Iran or Israel crashes
17%
Israel launches missiles at Tehran
14%
At least 500 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
10%
US forces strike Iranian forces within Iranian borders
9%
Israel formally declares war on Iran
7%
Israel assassinates Ayatollah Khamenei
3%
At least 5000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
3%
At least 100 casualties in Israel as a result of the missile attack (can be confirmed afterwards)
1.6%
At least 15000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
1%
Iran launches a second attack before October 7
Resolved
YESUN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true
I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.
It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Israel launches missiles at Tehran
Mass protests in Iran
@SaviorofPlant Is a rally a protest? If it’s protesting Israel is it a protest?
UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
@SaviorofPlant This should resolve YES.
The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed militant group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?
36% chance
Will Israel directly attack in Iran before the end of 2024?
89% chance
Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
36% chance
What will Israel strike if it responds against Iran (in 2024) following Iran’s 1st Oct 2024 missile attack on Israel.
Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024?
35% chance
Will there be a 2024 October Surprise caused by Iran?
31% chance
Will Israel launch air strikes within Tehran city limits by the end of 2024?
28% chance
Will November 2024 pass with no missile alarms in Haifa city?
28% chance
Will a Hezbollah missile kill someone in Tel Aviv in 2024?
38% chance
Will any Israeli aircraft be shot down over Iranian airspace by the end of 2024?
10% chance