What will happen in 2024 relating to the October 1 Iranian missile attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]

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Ṁ8795

Nov 1

ALL

97%

Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) in October

97%

Iran does not make a confirmed assassination attempt on Trump before the election

90%

Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) before October 7

83%

UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7

63%

An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action

44%

A military or civilian plane in Iran or Israel crashes

44%

Oil futures (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) reach $80/bbl

36%

Iran launches a second attack before October 7

32%

Mass protests in Iran

23%

Israel launches missiles at Tehran

21%

Israel formally declares war on Iran

13%

Israel assassinates Ayatollah Khamenei

At least 5000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks

At least 15000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks

At least 100 casualties in Israel as a result of the missile attack (can be confirmed afterwards)

Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true

I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.

It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.

#🇮🇱 Israel

#Iran

#Arab-Israeli Conflict

#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

#Lebanon

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bought Ṁ51 A military or civili... NO

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/oct/01/israel-lebanon-attacks-live-blog-ground-offensive-hezbollah-hamas-gaza-war

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