Will Israel attack Iraq by Sunday?

Question

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a military action on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 3, 2024, and October 6, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by Israel on Iraqi soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iraqi soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

Copy of polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/israel-military-action-against-iraq-by-sunday

Context: It would be against terrorist cells located in Iraq. The group in question just killed Israeli solidrers with a drone. https://x.com/ConlustroR/status/1842238198728048753

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on Oct 7, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.