Related markets that don't close early if anyone wants to continue betting:

https://manifold.markets/DanielKeck/how-strong-with-hurricane-helene-be?play=true
https://manifold.markets/JakeLowery/what-category-will-hurricane-helene?play=true

A reminder, market closes in less than 4 hours.

@parhizj Recon is supposed to go in right around market close, might get a last second chance to update your bets based on the latest intensity

Won't change my bets any more. Going to sign off "early" tonight.

@SaviorofPlant Don't forget to rename to Helene when you get a chance

Operational GFS shows a major hurricane, and operational Euro shows a weak hurricane. On the other hand, all of the hurricane models except the HMON show a high end cat 4 or cat 5 from this system...

It's still very early - we should know more once this actually forms and a reconnaissance flight inputs better data into the hurricane models, which tend to be relatively low skill before they get this data. For now, I'm forecasting a wide possible range of outcomes