Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/. Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first. MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Fay reaches hurricane status, the creator will resolve the market YES (or manually make good on the resolution), despite the market currently being closed and unable to be reopened. Update 2026-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is holding off on resolving the Gonzalo markets. Resolution is paused to allow time to see if the storm regenerates (acting as a "zombie storm") instead of resolving NO immediately upon dissipation.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Will Josephine reach Category 1 wind speeds?, followed by Will Kyle reach Category 1 wind speeds? and Will Josephine reach Category 2 wind speeds? are most likely. See the market for live updates (19 traders, as of Oct 17, 2026).

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?

MANIFOLD

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?

Ṁ11kṀ100k

Nov 30

17%

Will Josephine reach Category 1 wind speeds?

Will Josephine reach Category 2 wind speeds?

Will Josephine reach Category 3 wind speeds?

1.8%

Will Josephine reach Category 4 wind speeds?

1.2%

Will Josephine reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Will Kyle reach Category 1 wind speeds?

Will Kyle reach Category 2 wind speeds?

1.7%

Will Kyle reach Category 3 wind speeds?

1.1%

Will Kyle reach Category 4 wind speeds?

1.1%

Will Kyle reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Will Leah reach Category 1 wind speeds?

Will Leah reach Category 2 wind speeds?

1.5%

Will Leah reach Category 3 wind speeds?

1.4%

Will Leah reach Category 4 wind speeds?

1.1%

Will Leah reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Will Marco reach Category 1 wind speeds?

Will Marco reach Category 2 wind speeds?

1.8%

Will Marco reach Category 3 wind speeds?

1.6%

Will Marco reach Category 4 wind speeds?

1.2%

Will Marco reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.

Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.

MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET

Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Fay reaches hurricane status, the creator will resolve the market YES (or manually make good on the resolution), despite the market currently being closed and unable to be reopened.

Update 2026-09-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is holding off on resolving the Gonzalo markets.
- Resolution is paused to allow time to see if the storm regenerates (acting as a "zombie storm") instead of resolving NO immediately upon dissipation.

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2026 Hurricane Season

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How many Hurricanes in 2026?

On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2027 Atlantic season storms reach?

Which names will be used for hurricanes in the 2026 Hurricane Season?

What month will be most active in the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season?

How active will the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season be?

Which storm names used in the 2026 North Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Will a hurricane be designated "Category 6" on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale by the NHC by the end of 2030?

28% chance

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I have planted the seed for the 2027 Atlantic Hurricane Market

/ovals/on-the-saffirsimpson-hurricane-wind-6zCRsPz6Q0

Holding off on resolving Gonzalo markets, considering the fans of zombie storms are vocal

bought Ṁ165 NO

@ovals Gonzalo and Hanna have dissipated https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2026/ and no mention on high seas forecast https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php either so I think those can safely resolve no now.

I think technically a non-0 chance for Dolly but it's so small I'm sure it was fine to close it. Might want to be careful, tho, sometimes dissipated storms reform and strengthen. (Harvey in 2017 comes to mind)

Current Atlantic Tropical Outlook

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

@ovals reopen Fay?

@ChristopherRandles The National Hurricane Center has labeled Fay a Post-Tropical Cyclone

@ovals They also show a 20% chance of regenerating within 48 hours per graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

@ChristopherRandles When market maker closes a market there is only one hour to re-open the market without involving a moderator. In my experience the liquidity of markets my size will result in a 3- to 6-week delayed response. I will make good on the market if Fay reaches hurricane status, but i can't reopen the market

bought Ṁ50 NO

@ovals cristobal resolves no

Just to confirm: if a storm name is never used during the 2026 season, will all five category markets for that name resolve NO under the November 30 deadline?