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MANIFOLD
On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
18
Ṁ11kṀ78k
Nov 30
4%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 1 wind speeds?
3%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 2 wind speeds?
2%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 3 wind speeds?
1.7%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 4 wind speeds?
1.3%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 5 wind speeds?
14%
Will Hanna reach Category 1 wind speeds?
10%
Will Hanna reach Category 2 wind speeds?
6%
Will Hanna reach Category 3 wind speeds?
5%
Will Hanna reach Category 4 wind speeds?
3%
Will Hanna reach Category 5 wind speeds?
11%
Will Isaias reach Category 1 wind speeds?
5%
Will Isaias reach Category 2 wind speeds?
4%
Will Isaias reach Category 3 wind speeds?
2%
Will Isaias reach Category 4 wind speeds?
1.7%
Will Isaias reach Category 5 wind speeds?
11%
Will Josephine reach Category 1 wind speeds?
7%
Will Josephine reach Category 2 wind speeds?
5%
Will Josephine reach Category 3 wind speeds?
3%
Will Josephine reach Category 4 wind speeds?
2%
Will Josephine reach Category 5 wind speeds?

Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.

Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.

MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET

  • Update 2026-09-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If Fay reaches hurricane status, the creator will resolve the market YES (or manually make good on the resolution), despite the market currently being closed and unable to be reopened.

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2026 Hurricane Season
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I think technically a non-0 chance for Dolly but it's so small I'm sure it was fine to close it. Might want to be careful, tho, sometimes dissipated storms reform and strengthen. (Harvey in 2017 comes to mind)

Current Atlantic Tropical Outlook

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

@ovals reopen Fay?

@ChristopherRandles The National Hurricane Center has labeled Fay a Post-Tropical Cyclone

@ovals They also show a 20% chance of regenerating within 48 hours per graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

@ChristopherRandles When market maker closes a market there is only one hour to re-open the market without involving a moderator. In my experience the liquidity of markets my size will result in a 3- to 6-week delayed response. I will make good on the market if Fay reaches hurricane status, but i can't reopen the market

bought Ṁ50 NO

@ovals cristobal resolves no

Just to confirm: if a storm name is never used during the 2026 season, will all five category markets for that name resolve NO under the November 30 deadline?

@perfperfperf That's correct. Just like we did last year with every name past Melissa /ovals/on-the-saffirsimpson-hurricane-wind

Tropical Storm Arthur Forms Near Texas, Bringing Heavy Rain and Flooding to the Gulf Coast

Tropical Storm Arthur Forms Near Texas, Bringing Heavy Rain and Flooding to the Gulf Coast
Arthur just became the first named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season. It’s caused heavy rain and flooding in Texas this week, and more is on the way.
bought Ṁ5 YES

A to Z sort as default and remove leading space from Edouard cat 5 market would be a better order?

@ChristopherRandles leading space removed

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