On the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, to what levels will the 2026 Atlantic season storms reach?
3
Ṁ3.6kṀ2.4kNov 30
50%
Will Gonzalo reach Category 1 wind speeds?
24%
Will Fay reach Category 5 wind speeds?
31%
Will Fay reach Category 4 wind speeds?
41%
Will Fay reach Category 3 wind speeds?
47%
Will Fay reach Category 2 wind speeds?
50%
Will Fay reach Category 1 wind speeds?
24%
Will Edouard reach Category 5 wind speeds?
34%
Will Edouard reach Category 4 wind speeds?
41%
Will Edouard reach Category 3 wind speeds?
50%
Will Edouard reach Category 2 wind speeds?
52%
Will Edouard reach Category 1 wind speeds?
24%
Will Dolly reach Category 5 wind speeds?
34%
Will Dolly reach Category 4 wind speeds?
41%
Will Dolly reach Category 3 wind speeds?
50%
Will Dolly reach Category 2 wind speeds?
50%
Will Cristobal reach Category 2 wind speeds?
16%
Will Cristobal reach Category 5 wind speeds?
26%
Will Cristobal reach Category 4 wind speeds?
41%
Will Cristobal reach Category 3 wind speeds?
52%
Will Dolly reach Category 1 wind speeds?
Each storm/category will be considered a separate YES/NO market, resolved via reporting from https://weather.com/.
Markets will resolve YES within 48 hours of the reported Category upgrade. Markets will resolve NO within 48 hours of the reported dissipation of a named storm or on November 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM EST, whichever comes first.
MARKET CREATOR DOES NOT TRADE IN THIS MARKET
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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18% chance