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MANIFOLD
What will happen on March 1, 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
24
Ṁ2.2kṀ12k
resolved Mar 2
Resolved
YES
At least ten different options are created on this market
Resolved
YES
This answer will not resolve Yes
Resolved
YES
Elon tweets (not replies) between noon and midnight CST
Resolved
N/A
Every answer in this market gets at least one trader
Resolved
N/A
P will not be equal to NP
Resolved
N/A
P will be equal to NP
Resolved
NO
Donald Trump endorses a candidate on Truth Social
Resolved
NO
Jimmy Carter dies
Resolved
NO
The Sun explodes
Resolved
NO
Mars explodes
Resolved
NO
At least one of these markets resolves N/A
Resolved
NO
bitcoin reaches 64000 on google before midnight ec time
Resolved
NO
The Earth explodes
Resolved
NO
The creator of this market dies

Why trade the monthly market when you can trade a daily one and get results 30x sooner?

Market resolves in EST. I reserve the right to resolve any answer N/A if it's annoying for me to figure out whether it happened.

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Resolution notes:

"This answer will not resolve Yes", "At least one of these markets resolves N/A": Both of these markets resolved on March 2, and the only markets that resolved on March 1 resolved YES. To satisfy the criteria in these options, a resolution needed to occur on March 1 as per the title of this market, so the first resolves YES and the second resolves NO.

"Every answer in this market gets at least one trader": I was dumb and set the market close time after midnight EST, and several options were created on March 2. @josh provided the argument that "there exists at least one answer in this market, which did not get a trader on March 1”. But you could also argue that the “on March 1st” part of the market title implicitly applies to the creation of answers, and I don’t think there’s a clear way to impartially resolve this. Resolves N/A.

"P will not be equal to NP", "P will be equal to NP": It says in the description that "I reserve the right to resolve any answer N/A if it's annoying for me to figure out whether it happened.", and trying to prove whether P is NP is significantly more annoying than I expected figuring out any answer to be. Resolves N/A. Sorry @PaulDwyer.

@SaviorofPlant Extremely fair, and :+1: for resolving that one N/A due to ambiguity.

This one too.

@houstonEuler The title of the market specifies that the events described by the options needed to occur on March 1. All N/A resolutions occurred on March 2.

@SaviorofPlant You didn't specify a time zone in the title, so they did happen on March 1st somewhere. You should pay better attention to details.

@houstonEuler The time zone was specified in the description when the market was created.

@SaviorofPlant Ah, my bad.

Why did this resolve N/A? Seems clear that it should be YES.

I made a mistake and left the market open for a few hours into today, and several options were created in March 2. It was unclear to me whether this leads to a YES resolution (all options that existed on March 1 had at least one trader) or a NO resolution (there are several options in the market that did not have any trades on March 1) - the text of the option seems ambiguous in this regard.

@SaviorofPlant You can change the close date on a market.

@houstonEuler Could have avoided this if I'd noticed it sooner, but one of the options was created 19 seconds after midnight and at that point closing earlier wouldn't have fixed it.

@SaviorofPlant You could have closed the market and resolved the answers immediately. There shouldn't have been any difference between then and now if you were resolving based on March 1st EST.

@houstonEuler I think NAing is the right call in these multiple choice markets when the answer is slightly ambiguous , or people had different interpretations for it. I definitely bet thinking it would be 'at market close'

@Fedor I get it now. I just think the creator could have avoided confusion by adjusting the close date/time, especially since they're not new to creating questions.

@houstonEuler Once the option was already created on March 2, instantly resolving it wouldn't make it less ambiguous. Still, I would definitely agree that my behavior in this market qualified as "annoying" (I had several different 300 mana bets on the outcome of this option).

@SaviorofPlant Sorry I was being annoying last night, I just didn't read the description closely and I think that irritated me more than anything you did.

Why did this resolve N/A? Seems clear that it should be YES.

sold Ṁ0 NO

You're all insane, it could have been worse. Have a good day.

sold Ṁ127 YES

Lmao wait, I set the resolution time of this market in PST...

The description says the market resolves in EST, so I will wait 3 hours to start resolving things, but anything that happens after this point counts as March 2 for the purposes of this market.

bought Ṁ400 NO

@SaviorofPlant Try again in three hours then?

sold Ṁ606 NO

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ironically, enough people thought I would create last-second options that I was able to sell all my shares and make a profit, even though every option that existed on March 1 had at least one trader on March 1. (Actually, never mind, this is false and I lost a bunch of mana.)

Not sure how it should resolve if someone goes ahead and creates another option now...

bought Ṁ50 NO

@SaviorofPlant "What will happen on March 1, 2024?" "Every answer in this market gets at least one trader" - There exists at least one answer in this market, which did not get a trader on March 1. So, I think it'd be correct to resolve it as NO.
It does not say "every answer in this market that existed on March 1 gets at least one trader". :)

bought Ṁ180 NO

@josh Yeah, I think I agree with this

@josh It's still March 1st for me, and apparently for this market too. ;-)

It says "Market resolves in EST" in the description, I can't exactly change that just because I set the wrong resolution time. (Nowhere in the description does it say that the market can't stay open for 3 extra hours for no reason.)

@SaviorofPlant Ah, good point, I didn't notice that.

@josh Thinking about the "Every answer in this market gets at least one trader" option, I feel like it's open to interpretation whether the "on March 1st" part of the market title applies to the "in this market" part of the option. You can argue that on March 1st, every option in the market did get a trader, but your argument makes sense too. Probably just going to resolve it N/A due to the ambiguity.