Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA metropolitan statistical area in March 2026 is higher than in February 2026, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in their Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release. Data will be sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LOSA106UR or the BLS Local Area Unemployment Statistics at https://www.bls.gov/web/metro/laulrgma.htm. The market resolves NO if the March rate is lower than or equal to the February rate.

Background

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Los Angeles County was 5.6 percent in December 2025, down from 5.7 percent in November 2025. The State Employment and Unemployment data for January 2026 and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment data for January 2026 are expected to be released in April 2026, meaning February and March data will follow in subsequent releases.

Considerations

Month-to-month unemployment changes are typically small and subject to seasonal patterns. The BLS applies seasonal adjustments to account for predictable fluctuations, but unexpected economic shocks or labor market shifts could produce larger swings than historical norms.