Background
Tropical Storm Rina has been named after developing a well-defined center. The two storms, Rina and Philippe, are now in close proximity with each other, about 552 nautical miles or 1023 km according to their last known positions. This is within the range of distance required for noticeable binary interaction between two tropical cyclones to occur.
This kind of binary interaction, also called Fujiwhara effect, can add immense uncertainties to the path and strength forecast of tropical systems, as storms can begin rotating around each other, or even merge into one single system, usually with the stronger one absorbing the weaker one.
Will Philippe and Rina eventually merge with each other as a result of their close distance and binary interaction?
Resolution Criteria
Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center declares either one of the storms has absorbed or merged with another, in any one of the advisories for either storm during their lifetimes. Merger with remnant lows is to be treated as YES as long as the remnant lows are identified as the remnant lows of the named storm.
Resolves NO if no such advisories are issued before the last issued advisories for either storm.
Will resolve based on National Hurricane Center advisories.
I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ218 | |
| 2 | Ṁ28 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8 | |
| 5 | Ṁ6 |
This market has been resolved to NO per the comment below. Thank you all for participation!
I don't really have extensive knowledge or expectations about this market's likelihood to happen when it was created. I am just mostly hoping for something interesting arising from the binary interaction, but I suppose it was not to be. But it's at least worth it for the joke posted by @parhizj below!
As Philippe has been declared extratropical per NHC Advisory 53, this market has reached its decision moment. As far as I can find in the storm archive, there was no mention of storm merger in either Philippe or Rina's discussions. Last mention of Rina on Philippe's advisories was Discussion 30, noting that Rina passed Philippe by its north. Last mention of Philippe in Rina's advisories was Discussion 11, noting Philippe's detrimental effect on Rina.
Therefore, I will resolve this market as NO, shall there be no disagreements. I am going to leave the market open for another hour, and then I will proceed to resolve it.
As noted in the description, although Philippe's path is now way to the west to where Rina degenerated and any mention of merger seems highly unlikely, the market will only resolve when the last advisory for Philippe is put out. For now NHC forecast an extratropical transition in 72-96 hours and that should be the point when that happens.
@ChristopherRandles Yes, I believe it's the practice of NHC that once a tropical storm becomes extratropical, advisory duties will be passed the local weather agencies. So I think this market is ready to be resolved.
It would seem that Rina is slated to turn into a remnant low due to unfavourable conditions, including shearing forces imposed by the nearby Philippe. Philippe is forecast to move into the same area a few days later than Rina, a timing that seems to be a bit late for Philippe to catch up to Rina. But things can still develop differently due to the continued binary interactions.
