[Ṁ200 subsidy] Will Tropical Storm Lidia make landfall in Mexico?

Question

Background

Tropical Storm Lidia is a tropical cyclone that had formed in the Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico. It is forecast to become a hurricane shortly according to NHC advisories. The most recent forecast predicts that Lidia will turn west, then make a U-turn to the east towards the Mexican coast.

[image]Tropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152023
900 AM MDT Fri Oct 06 2023

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Although Lidia is tilted, its center is still obscured by the cirrus canopy produced by its deep convection. Consequently, there is more uncertainty than normal with the tropical storm's center location.

This is probably the largest source of uncertainty associated with Lidia's track for the next 2 to 3 days. Lidia should move slowly west-northwestward for the next day or so, and then gradually begin to turn northward after that. After about 72 h, Lidia should begin to accelerate northeastward, steered by a shortwave trough approaching from the northwest. While the dynamical models agree quite well on this general forecast, there is quite a bit of disagreement on how fast Lidia will accelerate around day 4 and 5. The NHC official track forecast has been nudged eastward, and lies roughly halfway between the TVCN and HCCA consensus models.

Will Lidia proceed to make landfall in any part of Mexico, following the last tropical cyclone landfall by Hilary in August?

Resolution Criteria

Resolves YES if Lidia is deemed to have landed in any part of mainland Mexico by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) of Mexico, excluding all outlying islands. SMN's tropical storm warning page can be found here.

Resolves NO if no such information can be found from the SMN of Mexico before the dissipation, degeneration below tropical storm strength, or extratropical transition of Lidia.

Will resolve based on SMN data, with supplemented data from NHC if necessary.

I will not bet on this market, but I will put Ṁ200 in as subsidy.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Oct 11, 2023 by Manifold Markets prediction market.