Resolves YES if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader, is killed by an airstrike conducted by Israel, the United States, or a coalition involving either, before February 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC).

Resolves NO otherwise—including if Khamenei dies from other military operations (e.g., ground raids, loitering munitions/kamikaze drones, missile strikes from ships/ground), natural causes, illness, accident, or internal Iranian actors.

Clarifications:

"Airstrike" includes bombs or missiles delivered by manned aircraft, cruise missiles launched from aircraft, or armed drones firing munitions at a target. It excludes loitering munitions / kamikaze drones (e.g., Shahed-type), ground-launched missiles, naval launches, or special operations raids.

The strike must be publicly attributed to or credibly claimed by Israel or the US, or there must be strong consensus among major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, BBC) regarding attribution.