Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro dies while in the custody of the United States government (e.g., in a federal detention center, prison, or during transport) on or before April 5, 2027. The market will resolve to "No" if he is still alive upon his release from U.S. custody or if he remains alive in custody after that date.

Resolution will be based on consensus reporting from major international and U.S. news outlets (e.g., The Associated Press, Reuters, BBC, The New York Times). Official statements from the U.S. Bureau of Prisons or the U.S. Department of Justice will be considered primary evidence.

Background

Nicolás Maduro, the former president of Venezuela, is currently being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC) in Brooklyn, New York. He was taken into U.S. custody in January 2026 following a U.S. military operation in Caracas and is currently awaiting trial on federal charges including narco-terrorism, cocaine importation, and weapons possession. As a high-profile detainee held under Special Administrative Measures (SAMs), his health and status are subject to significant legal scrutiny and media coverage.

This description was generated by AI.