In the Snake Eyes market, will official resolution deliver clear consensus?
closes Sep 30

I'll resolve this market after the "official resolution" is delivered, if there is no official resolution, the market will resolve N/A. "Clear consensus" is determined by my best judgement, I will not trade in this market.

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ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ10 of NO

Actually I should have asked before trading. Consensus on what?

  • The answer to the question itself or

  • That the resolution procedure for the market was followed?

4 replies
Sailfish avatar

@ShitakiIntaki Clear consensus between the professionals on the answer, so if three mathematicians are asked all three should agree that it is >50% and not 1/36 or vice versa.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicts NO

@Sailfish okay, so would this be a fair paraphrasing?
Will the Snake Eyes market adjudication resolve by [unanimous] decision? or greater than a super majority? a 2:1 split is theoretically a super majority but it is also the least amount to be a majority. a 2:3 decision could be considered close, but 4:1 or 5:0 are a bit more decisive.

But this market is asking about the quality of consensus amongst the adjudicators.

Sailfish avatar

@ShitakiIntaki It's vague in part because it isn't clear what the structure of the "official resolution" will be. There should be a strong claim by nearly all of the mathematicians that one answer is correct and the other is wrong. 4/5 might be fine, 3/4 probably is not sufficient. This market intends to capture if the "official resolution" will actually return information sufficient to resolve the original market in either direction.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicts NO

@Sailfish I agree that the official resolution is lacking specificity at this time.

What if it is just a sole mathematician ? The decision would be unanimous but there was no need to seek consensus.

I think the logistics of getting a sizable committee of mathematicians is onerous and beyond what most any market resolution would require.

So assuming that it would be a rather small sample, "clear consensus" probably ends up being unanimous.