Background Donald Trump, age 77, is currently running for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would be 78 at the start of his term and 82 by its completion. While he has generally maintained an active public schedule, advanced age is associated with increased health risks.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

1. Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND

2. During his term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), he experiences a medical condition that:

   • Prevents him from performing his presidential duties for an extended period

   • Results in permanent incapacity requiring invocation of the 25th Amendment

   • Forces his resignation for health reasons

   • Results in death

The market will resolve NO if:

• Trump does not win the 2024 election

• Trump wins and completes his term without a life-altering medical episode

• Trump leaves office for non-medical reasons

A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear, documented medical condition confirmed by official White House statements or credible medical professionals. Temporary illnesses that do not substantially impact his ability to serve (such as COVID-19 with mild symptoms) would not qualify.

Considerations

• The 25th Amendment provides procedures for presidential succession in cases of death, resignation, removal, or incapacitation

• Medical records and health status of presidents are typically closely monitored and publicly disclosed

• Historical precedent exists for presidents experiencing serious health issues while in office (Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower)

  Background Donald Trump, age 77, is currently running for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would be 78 at the start of his term and 82 by its completion. He has a documented history of heart disease, being overweight, and high cholesterol levels. His last publicly released coronary CT calcium scan in 2018 revealed coronary artery disease, though this is common for men of his age. While he has generally maintained an active public schedule, advanced age is associated with increased health risks.

  Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

  1. Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND

  2. During his term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), he experiences a medical condition that:

     • Prevents him from performing his presidential duties for an extended period

     • Results in permanent incapacity requiring invocation of the 25th Amendment

     • Forces his resignation for health reasons

     • Results in death

  The market will resolve NO if:

  • Trump does not win the 2024 election

  • Trump wins and completes his term without a life-altering medical episode

  • Trump leaves office for non-medical reasons

  A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear, documented medical condition confirmed by official White House statements or credible medical professionals. Temporary illnesses that do not substantially impact his ability to serve (such as COVID-19 with mild symptoms) would not qualify.

  Considerations

  • The 25th Amendment provides procedures for presidential succession in cases of death, resignation, removal, or incapacitation

  • Medical records and health status of presidents are typically closely monitored and publicly disclosed

  • Historical precedent exists for presidents experiencing serious health issues while in office (Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower)

  • Trump has not released detailed medical records since 2015, which may affect the transparency of health-related information during his potential term

    Background Donald Trump, age 77, is currently running for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would be 78 at the start of his term and 82 by its completion. He has a documented history of heart disease, being overweight, and high cholesterol levels. His last publicly released coronary CT calcium scan in 2018 revealed coronary artery disease, though this is common for men of his age. While he has generally maintained an active public schedule, advanced age is associated with increased health risks.

    Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

    1. Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND

    2. During his term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), he experiences a medical condition that:

       • Prevents him from performing his presidential duties for an extended period

       • Results in permanent incapacity requiring invocation of the 25th Amendment

       • Forces his resignation for health reasons

       • Results in death

    The market will resolve NO if:

    • Trump does not win the 2024 election

    • Trump wins and completes his term without a life-altering medical episode

    • Trump leaves office for non-medical reasons

    A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear, documented medical condition confirmed by official White House statements or credible medical professionals. Temporary illnesses that do not substantially impact his ability to serve (such as COVID-19 with mild symptoms) would not qualify.

    Considerations

    • The 25th Amendment provides procedures for presidential succession in cases of death, resignation, removal, or incapacitation

    • Medical records and health status of presidents are typically closely monitored and publicly disclosed

    • Historical precedent exists for presidents experiencing serious health issues while in office (Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower)

    • Trump has not released detailed medical records since 2015, which may affect the transparency of health-related information during his potential term

      Background Donald Trump, age 77, is currently running for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would be 78 at the start of his term and 82 by its completion. He has a documented history of heart disease, being overweight, and high cholesterol levels. His last publicly released coronary CT calcium scan in 2018 revealed coronary artery disease, though this is common for men of his age. While he has generally maintained an active public schedule, advanced age is associated with increased health risks.

      Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

      1. Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND

      2. During his term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), he experiences a medical condition that:

         • Prevents him from performing his presidential duties for an extended period

         • Results in permanent incapacity requiring invocation of the 25th Amendment

         • Forces his resignation for health reasons

         • Results in death

      The market will resolve NO if:

      • Trump does not win the 2024 election

      • Trump wins and completes his term without a life-altering medical episode

      • Trump leaves office for non-medical reasons

      A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear, documented medical condition confirmed by official White House statements or credible medical professionals. Temporary illnesses that do not substantially impact his ability to serve (such as COVID-19 with mild symptoms) would not qualify.

      Considerations

      • The 25th Amendment provides procedures for presidential succession in cases of death, resignation, removal, or incapacitation

      • Medical records and health status of presidents are typically closely monitored and publicly disclosed

      • Historical precedent exists for presidents experiencing serious health issues while in office (Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower)

      • Trump has not released detailed medical records since 2015, which may affect the transparency of health-related information during his potential term

        Background Donald Trump, age 77, is currently running for the presidency in 2024. If elected, he would be 78 at the start of his term and 82 by its completion. He has a documented history of heart disease, being overweight, and high cholesterol levels. His last publicly released coronary CT calcium scan in 2018 revealed coronary artery disease, though this is common for men of his age. While he has generally maintained an active public schedule, advanced age is associated with increased health risks.

        Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if:

        1. Trump wins the 2024 presidential election AND

        2. During his term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029), he experiences a medical condition that:

           • Prevents him from performing his presidential duties for an extended period

           • Results in permanent incapacity requiring invocation of the 25th Amendment

           • Forces his resignation for health reasons

           • Results in death

        The market will resolve NO if:

        • Trump does not win the 2024 election

        • Trump wins and completes his term without a life-altering medical episode

        • Trump leaves office for non-medical reasons

        A "life-altering medical episode" must be a clear, documented medical condition confirmed by official White House statements or credible medical professionals. Temporary illnesses that do not substantially impact his ability to serve (such as COVID-19 with mild symptoms) would not qualify.

        Considerations

        • The 25th Amendment provides procedures for presidential succession in cases of death, resignation, removal, or incapacitation

        • Medical records and health status of presidents are typically closely monitored and publicly disclosed

        • Historical precedent exists for presidents experiencing serious health issues while in office (Wilson, FDR, Eisenhower)

        • Trump has not released detailed medical records since 2015, which may affect the transparency of health-related information during his potential term

• Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Early Resolution:

  • The market will now resolve earlier if Trump is determined to be incapacitated as a result of any medical condition.

  • This means that if Trump shows signs of incapacity, even before a full-term evaluation, the outcome may be determined at that time.

  • All other criteria in the original resolution remain applicable unless the condition of early incapacity is met.