Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass. Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028. Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further. Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (36 traders, as of Sep 9, 2026).

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

MANIFOLD

Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?

Ṁ1kṀ4.7k

2027

46%

chance

ALL

Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.

Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.

Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further. Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

8% chance

When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀

Will OpenAI make a profit in 2025?

3% chance

What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]

Will OpenAI close its first day of public trading in 2026 with a market cap of $1 trillion+?

17% chance

Will OpenAI cease to exist before turning a profit?

35% chance

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

12% chance

Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

7% chance

What will be the first year OpenAI makes a net profit?

Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?

Sort by:

Would the Codex Micro count?

@realTomBayes I guess so? It is an official OpenAI collab, right?

@SG Yeah

bought Ṁ250 NO

@SG For context it sold out within 2 days (I think? fact check me) so I wouldn't call it a flop. They;re trying to produce another batch soon

codex micro is just openai branding on an existing product. it's a merch store gimmick not an openai hardware product

bought Ṁ200 NO

@jim Still an OpenAI-sold hardware product

@realTomBayes @jim @SG I would say this is niche but definitely not a flop

What are you defining as a flop? If it sells well but the device is crap is it a flop? Alternatively if it doesn’t sell well but the device is great is it a flop?

@RKCarn I am intentionally not defining a flop. I'll know it when I see it... (If I had a tighter operationalization for this question, I would have just used that.)