Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop?
26
1kαΉ€1963
2027
62%
chance

Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.

Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.

  • Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further. Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".

Technology
AI
OpenAI
AI Impacts
Unranked
Get
αΉ€1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

What are you defining as a flop? If it sells well but the device is crap is it a flop? Alternatively if it doesn’t sell well but the device is great is it a flop?

@RKCarn I am intentionally not defining a flop. I'll know it when I see it... (If I had a tighter operationalization for this question, I would have just used that.)

bought αΉ€5 NO

Are the following flops to you?

Apple vision pro

Meta's rayban smart glasses

Oculus

@SimoneRomeo Probably not...

bought αΉ€50 YES

has an AI hardware ever not flopped?

@jim the real question is what the base rate is for jony ive's products flopping

reposted

Could these guys ever mess up?

People are also trading

Β© Manifold Markets, Inc.β€’Termsβ€’Privacy