Main market: /ModernDayDebate/capitalism-vs-socialism-will-destin-03ee036a538a

Unlike the main market, this market resolves to what a panel of judges on Manifold select to be the winner. This market resolves YES if Destiny (capitalism) is the winner.

Tentative judges: @MarcusAbramovitch, @cash, @jacksonpolack

Tentative judging procedure (subject to revision!)

The purpose of this market is to test a new (over-engineered) epistemics-focused debate format inspired by @NathanYoung.

The basic idea is that each of the judges provide a "prior" of how much they agree with a certain proposition before the debate. After the debate, they give their "posterior". The winner of the debate is whichever side can shift the judges' prior the most.

More specifically, before the debate, I will ask each of the judges to give me a number from 1% to 99% (in single percentage point increments) expressing their credence that "capitalism is a better system than socialism". I will then record their answers (in pseudonymous fashion as Judge #1, Judge #2, etc) and post a hash of the results.

The judges will refrain from revealing their prior and pledge to not bet on this or a related market (or have friends bet on their behalf).

After the debate, I will ask them for their credence level again, and I will reveal the priors and posteriors for the 3 judges (pseudonomized). The judges will also reveal their statements on key points made during the debate. If the sum of the change in log-odds across the judges' probabilities is positive, then this market resolves YES (if negative, then NO; exactly 0, then this market resolves to 50%).