Background
We're thinking about turning Groups into a more competitive social experience called Leagues, similar to fantasy sports leagues:
A League is designed to be used with your friends.
When you create a League, you'll see an invite link for you to invite your friends.
Each League page will have a live activity feed showing recent trades by members of the League as well as a leaderboard tracking your total profits on included markets since the creation date of the League.
You can choose to restrict your League to only certain markets or make it open to every market on Manifold.
Resolution criteria
Thirty days after a minimum working version of Leagues goes live on Manifold, I will ask @Austin whether he's satisfied with the growth in new users that we estimate has resulted from Leagues, and will resolve to his answer. (Since I am the main proponent of Leagues, I'm resolving according to his opinion to make this market less biased.)
If we decide not to work on Leagues (or a product sufficiently similar to Leagues) in the next couple of months, this market resolves N/A — even if we decide to pursue Leagues at some later date.
1,000
3.00Shouldn't we NA this now @SG? Since if we do create some sort of leagues it's going to be the ranked system and not a friend based one.
This market is a little bit too vague for me to want to bet on. I think that if Manifold turns groups into leagues and doesn't have "tags" it will slightly hurt growth in expectation, and if Manifold implements leagues and tags separately it will slightly help growth (but I don't think leagues sound like they will super duper take off without a lot of work, and we historically do not put a lot of work into new ideas.)
I think if they had markets that were private to the league I'd be more excited. e.g. I can imagine households or orgs I'm in running markets more if they were only visible to the group. I might even have some pairwise leagues in that case. This was the thing I was originally looking for when I came to Manifold btw.
@SG I can think of multiple people I might actively ask or repeatedly bother to join or use in this case. Like maybe I'd make a group for my family. My guess is that a lot of people are shy to make public bets or markets, and also to have a public record of how good they were at it from the outset.