Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities? | Manifold

Supposing H5N1 spreads to humans, which antiviral drug that exists today (Feb 2023) will prove most effective in preventing fatalities?

Basic

5

Ṁ220

Jan 1

40%

Other

14%

No effective antivirals

45%

Oseltamivir

0.7%

Peramivir

0.8%

zanamivir

Resolves N/A if there are no confirmed human cases of human-to-human transmission by the end of 2023, or if no antivirals have been tested by the end of 2024. Antivirals used prophylactially will count.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

Get

1,000

and

3.00

Sort by:

Does "exist" mean "approved for Influenza A" or "approved for any indication" or "in development for any indication"?

There needs to be both human cases and human to human transmission for this question to be activated. There have already been approximately 10 cases of H5N1 in humans in the last 15 months. Human to human transmission is a major evolutionary leap but certainly not out of the cards.

@BTE No one has bet yet so I will modify the description.

@SG aka Tamiflu

Related questions

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025

-16% 1d35% chance

Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?

+5% 1d32% chance

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?

Will the FDA issue an EUA or full approval for an mRNA H5N1 vaccine by 2025?

Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?

+49% 1d74% chance

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 by the end of 2024?

-14% 1d34% chance

Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?

Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?

Number of H5N1 clinical trials for human treatments registered by April 30, 2025

Related questions

First confirmed human-to-human H5N1 transmission by February 1st 2025

Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?

Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?

Will there be 100 or more human cases of H5N1 by the end of 2024?

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?

[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?

Will an H5N1 mRNA vaccine be developed and enter "late stage" human trials (or wider release) by July 2025?

Will the FDA issue an EUA or full approval for an mRNA H5N1 vaccine by 2025?

Number of H5N1 clinical trials for human treatments registered by April 30, 2025

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules