What is the advantage of a perp versus a series of binary markets? It seems like the perp is trickier to set up. Is the perp interpretable as a forecast? For time-series forecasts, people often care about the full distribution of outcomes, but you can't represent a full distribution with a single number.

I tried something similar years ago because I thought it'd be fun to encourage more API traders:
https://manifold.markets/PatMyron/current-bitcoin-price
https://manifold.markets/PatMyron/current-apple-market-cap-in-b-perma

https://manifold.markets/PatMyron/current-alphabet-google-market-cap
but it resulted in more compulsive manual trading and less botting than I hoped 😔

Recommending to have it on MNX instead

The loans still don't work properly, perhaps it is wiser to focus on not building new things for a while: https://manifold.markets/post/i-believe-my-total-loan-is-calculat

Yes, if done well.

Recent attempts to vibe code loans and interest do not inspire confidence.

I’d Like liquidity to be applied properly to multi choice and set markets so most of it doesn’t get lost.

very supportive

I voted yes but then I thought about it more and I'm actually not sure. It might siphon mana and attention away from making actual predictions and detract from the site's main purpose. It would be at least a really interesting experiment though.

@xjp same

@xjp you could bring it back to predictions by making a perp of the polymarket odds on a question /s

@xjp If the perp is on something like "unemployment rate" or "measles cases" then it's an "actual prediction". Doesn't have to be about a financial underlying.

@EvanDaniel And it’s not like there aren’t already dozens of “Bitcoin up/down this week” markets that are more financial than prediction.