Ok! My bot is finished and trading on all 4 markets. I don’t see how there’s inventive to bet on these anymore tho , as there shouldn’t be a difference on the manifold value vs real value anymore

Awesome, I'll send a manalink over discord. Assuming it's https://github.com/NiciusB/ManifoldTradingBot/. How often does it check to trade? Also have a few more permanent markets if you want to trade those as well:

@PatMyron Yup, that’s it. Thanks, I might try and make it bet on those too!

It checks every 30s and bets enough to perfectly match the market cap. All those 1 mana bets round the current value, so it might over or under shoot but it always does the optimal one

@NiciusB the bot should check for limit existing limit orders

@AlexbGoode Yup, definitely. It’s trying to get it to 1399. something so it’s going to take a while to eat up the limit order

@NiciusB I have now over a hundred notifications;(

@NiciusB Nice! If you're looking for more opportunities, you can trade all the "Will the S&P500 go up over this time period" by calculating the implied probability from options prices using Black Scholes algorithm (the d2 variable is probability)

@NiciusB hey Nuno I think the bot is broken it’s correcting up to wrong values of the market cap and not just this market. Just a heads up.

@NiciusB You may need to top up your bot. Also I recommend not buying 1 mana at a time as you will lose too much in fees.

@MartinRandall It’s not an issue of fees, it just doesn’t have enough liquidity. I can give it a couple k from my balance but it’s not gonna last long. Due to the way math works it takes a shit ton of mana in NO to match equivalent YES shares on these markets

@NiciusB it’s got other issues, trades at worse prices than available, e.g. bought a ton of NO here at 1711 and 1724 ignoring there’s a 1750 limit on offer.

@deagol It is filling an existing order so it should be actually buying at 1750, it’s weird that it does it in tons of small orders tho, I thought I had fixed that issue. In any case it would need 4360 mana to deplete the YES limit order

@NiciusB I just like the stock

The range on this and a couple of your other market cap markets seem too wide, I feel like I wouldn't tie up my M$ for multiple years for a 5% change

If you had a tighter range ( -20% / +20% ) you could make it more interesting for people to speculate on which way the valuation will move. If it hit either of those levels, you could resolve the market then and create a new one.

I'll send mana to whoever who set up bots trading my permanent markets. Once there are bots trading, no one should have to hold that long