IMF regularly makes estimates of what's happening with GDP growth in Russia, and this will be taken as the first preference source (if they publish such a claim by the close date of this market). If not, the official rosstat data for 2024 Q4 will be used.

At the moment, the Russian economy is the 3rd fastest growing economy amongst major nations such as OECD, after India and China. However, a large proportion of this growth is happening by various military spending, and a lot can change between now and the end of the year which may upset this (including the possibility of conclusion of the war). In general, GDP growth in the last 2 years has been very volatile in Russia.

The market is, will Russia experience negative GDP growth in 2024, fourth quarter?