Resolution criteria

Ukrainian law does not allow presidential elections to be held when martial law is in effect. This market resolves based on when Zelenskyy makes a public announcement of a specific date or timeline for national elections. An announcement must be an explicit statement by Zelenskyy or his official office regarding when elections will be held. The announcement date determines which answer resolves yes. If Zelenskyy announces elections contingent on a ceasefire or other precondition, that answer resolves yes. If no announcement is made by December 31, 2027, the "Never announces national elections" answer resolves yes. Resolution sources: official statements from Zelenskyy, Ukrainian presidential office communications, and major news outlets covering the announcement.

Background

Martial law has been extended in 90-day intervals since the full-scale invasion with parliament's approval, and has most recently (as of February 2026) been extended for the 18th time until 4 May 2026. On 25 September 2025, Zelenskyy stated he was "ready" to not run again after the war's conclusion. On 15 December 2025, Zelenskyy said he would run if the next election was held during the war, but was unsure if he would run in peacetime. On 9 December 2025, after pressure from US President Donald Trump to hold elections, Zelenskyy said he was ready to hold elections in 60 to 90 days if the US and Ukraine's European allies ensured the necessary security. Discussions about elections have moved from speculation to technical preparation, even as the country endures its most difficult winter.

Considerations

All political parties represented in the Verkhovna Rada signed a document in which they agreed to postpone holding any national election until after the end of martial law and agreed to work on a special law that would regulate the first post-war election, which would take place no earlier than six months after the cancellation of martial law. Zelensky has instructed lawmakers to draft proposals that would allow changes to election legislation during martial law, but no amendments have been adopted. At least six months should pass between the end of martial law and the start of an election campaign.