
Will China announce the establishment of an AI Safety Insitute in 2024?
17
Ṁ1kṀ3.1kresolved Jan 5
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Only a federal China AISI or equivalent counts for the purposes of this market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ416 | |
| 2 | Ṁ321 | |
| 3 | Ṁ101 | |
| 4 | Ṁ66 | |
| 5 | Ṁ65 |
People are also trading
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
65% chance
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
14% chance
US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
21% chance
In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?
2031
US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
25% chance
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
40% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
34% chance
Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
23% chance
By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
5% chance
Sort by:
@Ryannn they're important enough for AISI UK to visit
@Siebe yes, but they aren't the specific thing I'm referencing with this market: a federal Chinese AISI
@OP A Chinese AISI is an AISI that is part of the national government of China, or receives official national government endorsement as an AISI representing China.
People are also trading
Related questions
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027?
65% chance
Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.
14% chance
US and China publicly announce a bilateral AI arrangement before 2027?
21% chance
In what year will an AI Lab in China build Artificial General Intelligence?
2031
US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
25% chance
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
40% chance
[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
34% chance
Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?
52% chance
Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
23% chance
By 2027, will there be a US-China bilateral AI agreement, negotiated partly by an AI mediator?
5% chance