With Perserverence currently on mars looking for microbial life and creating samples for the Mars Sample Return mission that is currently expected to arrive on earth in 2033, will we detect evidence of life on Mars before 2040?
Will resolve YES if a 5 sigma discovery of martian life is announced before December 31st 2040.
The probability of us discovering life on Mars P(discover life)=P(discover|there is life)P(life on Mars) [false positives are as probable as 5-sigma, so let's ignore them], so this market being at 34% means there is at least 34% chance of life on Mars in the first place. Can anyone (maybe those who bet YES) explain why is having microbes on Mars so probable?
I thought this is about evidence of (past) life on mars, perhaps I misunderstood. @RyanGuill can you clarify?
Some suggestive evidence but might take a while to get conclusive ones