Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 3 years?
12
170Ṁ380
Apr 26
66%
chance

Resolves to NO if I'm spending less than half of my working time doing alignment research at Redwood Research.

Market context
Redwood Research
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
predictedNO

Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
51% chance. Resolves to NO if an organization called Redwood Research still exists, but has 1 or fewer employees working full time on alignment research.

According to this market, there's only a 50% chance of Redwood existing in 3 years.
https://manifold.markets/RyanGreenblatt/will-redwood-research-still-exist-i-61212f9cdb2f

People are also trading

Will I still work on alignment research at Redwood Research in 5 years?
49% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 3 years?
90% chance
Will Redwood Research still exist in 5 years?
53% chance
Will taking annual MRIs of the smartest alignment researchers turn out alignment-relevant by 2033?
7% chance
Conditional on not having died from unaligned AGI, I consider myself a full time alignment researcher by the end of 2030
34% chance
Will I adhere to my study protocol in 2026?
59% chance
By 2028, will I think Redwood Research has been net-good for the world?
83% chance
Will some piece of AI capabilities research done in 2023 or after be net-positive for AI alignment research?
81% chance
Will I focus on the AI alignment problem for the rest of my life?
38% chance
Will I still work at memorang at the end of 2026?
47% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy