Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
204
1.4kṀ120k
resolved Nov 7
Resolved
NO

If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date\

Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas

AI
OpenAI
GPT-5 Speculation
OpenAI Crisis
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ11,209
2Ṁ1,659
3Ṁ1,473
4Ṁ1,123
5Ṁ1,033
Sort by:
bought Ṁ8,893 NO

@mods resolves NO

bought Ṁ600 NO

https://in.mashable.com/tech/77593/openais-gpt-5-pushed-back-to-late-2025-but-promises-phd-level-abilities

bought Ṁ100 YES

How does this resolve if their next major model is not called "GPT-5", but rather, say, a name like Claude or Grok (or anything else for that matter)?

@benshindel hedge

because if "GPT-5" is not released before elections, this resolves to NO

@firstuserhere oh I'm already very hedged on that front, but I'm actually shocked that market is so high! I bet it down a bunch

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

Same question but for the "SORA" model:

reposted

reposting

I bet they will release it soon

this implies a ~35% chance it gets released in november or december? huh

predictedNO

@Bayesian Rather, it implies 35% chance it doesn't get released until November.

reposted

reposting

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules