How does this resolve if their next major model is not called "GPT-5", but rather, say, a name like Claude or Grok (or anything else for that matter)?

@benshindel hedge

because if "GPT-5" is not released before elections, this resolves to NO

@firstuserhere oh I'm already very hedged on that front, but I'm actually shocked that market is so high! I bet it down a bunch

There might not be a GPT-5 at all

Same question but for the "SORA" model:

reposting

I bet they will release it soon

this implies a ~35% chance it gets released in november or december? huh

@Bayesian Rather, it implies 35% chance it doesn't get released until November.

reposting