In what month will OpenAI broadly release the model expected to be called GPT-5?
52
328
1.2k
2025
19%
May or June 2024
15%
July 2024
12%
August 2024
9%
September 2024
8%
October 2024
9%
November 2024
12%
December 2024
17%
January 2025 or later

OpenAI is expected to release a new flagship model called GPT-5 sometime this year or early next year, although Sam Altman has said that he's not sure if they'll actually call it GPT-5.

This market will resolve based on the official, confirmed public release of that anticipated model. If it is not named GPT-5 then Altman/OpenAI must make it clear that it is the same anticipated model which everyone has been expecting to be called GPT-5. If this is not clear, a model not named GPT-5 will not count for this resolution.

A test release like the GPT2 chatbots put up on Chatbot Arena before the release of GPT-4o would not count for this market, and neither would something like the preview release of GPT-4 through Microsoft Azure. This market requires a broad, official release which is either free or available at a reasonable cost like through a GPT plus membership.

These exact resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question, and your suggestions are welcome in the comments.

This market resolves to the month in which the release happens in Pacific Time, or to "January 2025 or later" if the release does not happen by then.

Get Ṁ600 play money

More related questions