Who will be the first trillionaire? | Manifold

Who will be the first trillionaire?

94

3.7kṀ16k

2026

48%

Elon Musk

32%

Other

5%

Jeff Bezos

4%

Larry Ellison

4%

Sam Altman

3%

Bernard Arnault

1.1%

Michael Saylor

1%

Jensen Huang

Heads of state/inherited wealth are not included.

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Heads of state/inherited wealth are not included.

You should give a list of resolution sources, since including sovereign wealth, stock market fluctuations, property self-valuations etc. make this very chaotic.

Are we discounting heads of state/inherited wealth?

Interesting discussion (2021!)
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-sam-altman.html

What will you do if there's no trillionaire by 2026?

Do I misunderstand the question? It seems obvious that it's unlikely to be any of the named ones, right?

@manyu why? there's long been speculation that Bezos would become the first trillionaire

I assume we are talking US dollar?

@TeryakiBois yes

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Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?

+13% 1d39% chance

When will there be a 'Half Trillionaire'?

Who will be the first half-trillionaire?

Who will be the first officially recognized USD trillionaire?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

In what year will the first person surpass a net worth of $1 trillion USD?

Will I be a trillionaire by 2100?

Related questions

Will there be a half-trillionaire by the end of 2025?

When will there be a 'Half Trillionaire'?

Who will be the first half-trillionaire?

Who will be the first officially recognized USD trillionaire?

Will the world's first trillionaire be someone who as of market-creation was worth at least $10 billion?

Will Elon Musk be the world's first trillionaire?

Will we see the first crypto trillionaire by 2030?

In what year will the first person surpass a net worth of $1 trillion USD?

Will I be a trillionaire by 2100?

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