Imagine that I (Ronny Fernandez) were hired to publicly judge the bet proposed in the screenshot below. Would I by Jan 1st 2024 judge Eliezer Yudkowsky or Nick Davidov to be the winner?

If there is a large economic shock caused by GPT4 or some other large language model or similar, I will settle this market to Yes. If there is no such economic shock, I will settle this question to No.

In order to settle this question I will consider various things like: asking my Uber driver if they have heard of GPT4 or large language models, looking at the size of the LLM market, asking several of my friends how many times they used LLMs for work, did GDP grow an unusual amount in 2023, how about just in "knowledge work" sectors, etc. I will be taking a hollistic approach and using my best judgement to settle this market. In the case that things seem unclear, I will do my best to avoid settling this market to N/A and try to judge who was closer to correct.

I (Ronny Fernandez) will not be trading at all in this market.

EDIT:

I have been convinced by Rob Bensinger on twitter that I was being too non literal in determining the resolution criteria here. Because I think that the non literal version of the market is more interesting and useful, and because there is already a decent volume of trading on that market, I have decided to make a more literal version of the market and link it here:

https://manifold.markets/RonnyFernandez/extremely-literal-judging-will-i-ro?referrer=RonnyFernandez

Close date updated to 2023-01-01 8:30 pm

Dec 25, 1:10pm: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.) → SPIRIT OF THE QUESTION JUDGING: Will I (Ronny Fernandez) think that Eliezer Yudkowsky (No) or Nick Davidov (Yes) should have won the proposed bet if Nick Davidov agreed to it? (See description for details.)