Each month [1], https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup with at least 10 links; the other post(s) must be at least 600 words long. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied.
I will only buy YES. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence.
Reasons to vote NO:
-most bloggers don't maintain a regular posting habit
-last year I came extremely close to failing a similar goal several times
-I'm going to bet this market irrationally high
-my substack is also not a primary work or life priority, so I might rationally de-prioritize it
[1] clarificatory addendum: by end of month according to the time zone I'm posting from, which has been, and will likely continue to be, US Pacific Time. Depending on where you are, Substack might show something as having been posted after the end of the month. But if you subscribe (wink wink) you'll be able to know what time the email went out, and bet accordingly.
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@jrmygrdn huh that’s weird, especially if you’re on US Pacific. another weird thing - I checked the email, which as you can see definitely went out on Feb 29. but you can also see that the email already marks it as March 1.
in any case - I did post twice in Feb in my time zone so I hit the goal. sorry for the confusion!
@Rodeo I’m in London so it makes some sense, although that’s still not how dates work. But I can see in raw hours that it was in Feb so thanks for the clarification. Something to be aware of I think.