Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

closes Dec 21

87%

chance

ALL

Each month, https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup (e.g. this); the other post(s) must be at least 500 words. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied.

I will only vote YES; I will do this whenever and however much I want. I'm going to put more money on YES than is strictly rational, as motivation. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence.

Reasons to vote NO: it's an ambitious goal that I don't have a track record of meeting - I've had vague 'blog regularly' goals in the past and never really hit them. And outside view, most bloggers don't. Also, my substack is also not a primary work or life priority, so I might rationally de-prioritize it.

Internet

Personal Goals

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Rodeois predicting YES at 88%

okay, May had two posts (but only just - buy more NO!)

https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/what-does-panpsychism-entail-about

What does panpsychism entail about AI consciousness?

On the hard problem and the pretty hard problem

Austinbought Ṁ56 of NO

I like this blog! But the prior track record of "2 in april; 2 in feb; then 2 in august 2022" leads me to want to bet it downwards~

Rodeois predicting YES at 70%

@Austin that is definitely outside-view rational! if it weren’t my blog I’d definitely bet that way down

as should others!

42irrationalistis predicting NO at 77%

@Rodeo it's also good to bet downwards because it provides you with extra mana you can win at the end (since you are betting YES)

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 88% to 87%

Rodeo bought Ṁ100 YES at 88%

Yaakov Saxon bought Ṁ3 YES at 88%

Rodeo bought Ṁ100 YES from 86% to 88%

Rodeo bought Ṁ50 YES from 85% to 86%

Marco P bought Ṁ10 NO from 86% to 85%

Rodeo bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Rodeo bought Ṁ117 YES from 84% to 86%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ50 YES at 70%

Rodeo bought Ṁ100 YES from 81% to 84%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ30 NO from 85% to 81%

Rodeo bought Ṁ56 YES from 84% to 85%

na pewno bought Ṁ20 NO from 86% to 84%

Rodeo bought Ṁ15 YES at 86%

Rodeo bought Ṁ10 YES at 86%

Milli bought Ṁ10 NO from 87% to 86%

Rodeo bought Ṁ150 YES from 84% to 87%

na pewno bought Ṁ10 NO from 85% to 84%

Rodeo bought Ṁ85 YES from 83% to 85%

Rodeo bought Ṁ10 YES at 83%

Rodeo bought Ṁ10 YES from 82% to 83%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ10 NO from 84% to 82%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 99.0%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 98%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 97%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ10 NO at 96%

na pewno created limit order for Ṁ20 NO at 92%

na pewno filled limit order Ṁ10/Ṁ20 NO at 88%

Rodeo bought Ṁ55 YES from 82% to 84%

Rodeo bought Ṁ150 YES from 77% to 82%

na pewno sold Ṁ4 NO from 76% to 77%

Rodeo bought Ṁ1 YES at 76%

Nico D bought Ṁ10 NO from 78% to 76%

Rodeo bought Ṁ7 YES from 77% to 78%

Angola Maldives bought Ṁ10 NO from 79% to 77%

Rodeo bought Ṁ20 YES from 78% to 79%

Jim Hays created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 89%

AccelerationBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ100 YES at 78% (cancelled) 🤖

Jim Hays bought Ṁ40 NO from 83% to 77%

Saul Munn bought Ṁ20 NO from 85% to 83%

na pewno bought Ṁ20 NO from 88% to 85%

Rodeo bought Ṁ420 YES from 75% to 88%

Rodeo bought Ṁ10 YES from 74% to 75%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ20 NO from 78% to 74%

Jim Hays bought Ṁ30 NO from 82% to 78%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ10 NO from 84% to 82%

Rodeo bought Ṁ165 YES from 78% to 84%

J. F. Jurchen bought Ṁ20 NO from 81% to 78%

HMYS_BOT_3000 bought Ṁ2 NO at 81%

Rodeo bought Ṁ150 YES from 75% to 81%

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