Each month, https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup (e.g. this); the other post(s) must be at least 500 words. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied.
I will only vote YES; I will do this whenever and however much I want. I'm going to put more money on YES than is strictly rational, as motivation. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence.
Reasons to vote NO: it's an ambitious goal that I don't have a track record of meeting - I've had vague 'blog regularly' goals in the past and never really hit them. And outside view, most bloggers don't. Also, my substack is also not a primary work or life priority, so I might rationally de-prioritize it.
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Ah, I see you managed to get the second July post published. It's appropriately titled "How to use money for accountability in a way that is neither unethical nor self-defeating". Somehow it doesn't mention this bet on manifold...
@Rodeo interested in these questions! Subscribed. I specifically prefer manifold for my commitment contracts because it’s the only way to potentially make “money” for something instead of just losing it. I’m still workshopping how best to operate my YES bets on my productivity markets to maximize my skin in the game while also getting the max reward.
One out of two of the July posts is up https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/things-i-read-and-liked-in-june
June goal hit! (published at 11:07pm EDT from the eastern US, where I currently am). Another close one - so buy some NO!
https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/ai-systems-as-real-life-thought-experiments
okay, May had two posts (but only just - buy more NO!)
https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/what-does-panpsychism-entail-about
@Austin that is definitely outside-view rational! if it weren’t my blog I’d definitely bet that way down
as should others!
@Rodeo it's also good to bet downwards because it provides you with extra mana you can win at the end (since you are betting YES)