Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?
34
closes Dec 21
87%
chance

Each month, https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup (e.g. this); the other post(s) must be at least 500 words. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied.

I will only vote YES; I will do this whenever and however much I want. I'm going to put more money on YES than is strictly rational, as motivation. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence.

Reasons to vote NO: it's an ambitious goal that I don't have a track record of meeting - I've had vague 'blog regularly' goals in the past and never really hit them. And outside view, most bloggers don't. Also, my substack is also not a primary work or life priority, so I might rationally de-prioritize it.

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Rodeo avatar
Rodeois predicting YES at 88%

okay, May had two posts (but only just - buy more NO!)

https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/what-does-panpsychism-entail-about

What does panpsychism entail about AI consciousness?
What does panpsychism entail about AI consciousness?
On the hard problem and the pretty hard problem
Austin avatar
Austinbought Ṁ56 of NO

I like this blog! But the prior track record of "2 in april; 2 in feb; then 2 in august 2022" leads me to want to bet it downwards~

Rodeo avatar
Rodeois predicting YES at 70%

@Austin that is definitely outside-view rational! if it weren’t my blog I’d definitely bet that way down

as should others!

42irrationalist avatar
42irrationalistis predicting NO at 77%

@Rodeo it's also good to bet downwards because it provides you with extra mana you can win at the end (since you are betting YES)

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