Will the Experience Machines substack post 2+ times a month for the rest of the year?

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Ṁ89K

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resolved Dec 21

Resolved

YES

ALL

Each month, https://experiencemachines.substack.com/ must post at least twice. One post must be a links roundup (e.g. this); the other post(s) must be at least 500 words. The market will resolve early if a given month passes without those conditions being satisfied.

I will only vote YES; I will do this whenever and however much I want. I'm going to put more money on YES than is strictly rational, as motivation. It's a pretty ambitious goal - see if you can earn some money from my overconfidence.

Reasons to vote NO: it's an ambitious goal that I don't have a track record of meeting - I've had vague 'blog regularly' goals in the past and never really hit them. And outside view, most bloggers don't. Also, my substack is also not a primary work or life priority, so I might rationally de-prioritize it.

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19 Comments

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predicted YES

Thanks for following along everyone! This market has been one of the highlights of my year. Sincerely! And I have had a good year, so that's non-trivial praise :)

predicted NO

Congrats!

predicted YES

@42irrationalist o7

predicted YES

https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/speaking-of-sentience that’s a wrap!

bought Ṁ540 of YES

I said I’d only ever buy yes - for the record, I accidentally just sold some yes and then immediately bought it back

bought Ṁ500 YES from 98.5% to 98.6%

predicted YES

Three more!

predicted YES

@NicoDelon o7

predicted YES

https://open.substack.com/pub/experiencemachines/p/common-mistakes-about-ai-consciousness

predicted NO

Ah, I see you managed to get the second July post published. It's appropriately titled "How to use money for accountability in a way that is neither unethical nor self-defeating". Somehow it doesn't mention this bet on manifold...

predicted YES

@42irrationalist ha, i thought about it! i mentioned it in the last links post.

predicted NO

@Rodeo interested in these questions! Subscribed. I specifically prefer manifold for my commitment contracts because it’s the only way to potentially make “money” for something instead of just losing it. I’m still workshopping how best to operate my YES bets on my productivity markets to maximize my skin in the game while also getting the max reward.