https://experiencemachines.substack.com/
Resolves YES as follows - successful 'links roundup' for each month (a) must contain 8 or more links from the month in question and (b) be posted:
between March 31 and EOD April 2 (for March roundup)
between April 30 and EOD May 2 (for April roundup)
Will resolve NO after EOD April 2 if failed March, otherwise will resolve on EOD May 2.
Background for bettors: following Sam Atis's 'Brief guide to substack', I think it's valuable to post links roundups. However, in the past I've had a vague intention of doing this, but have only managed to do it twice (in February and in August 2022). That's evidence for NO, as is the fact that this is not a super high personal priority, and I will be busy and traveling a lot in the next couple of months. The case for YES hinges largely on how motivating I'll find the existence of this market - there's no prior track record on this.
I will bet 75 [edited from: 500] YES now, and 500 [edited from: 1000] YES a few days after I post the first roundup (if I do). I will not make any other bets.
Related market with more ambitious goal: https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-the-experience-machines-substa-1d8199fca083?r=Um9kZW8
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ145 | |
| 2 | Ṁ47 | |
| 3 | Ṁ22 | |
| 4 | Ṁ11 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Here's the April links roundup: https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/things-i-read-and-liked-in-april. Will resolve this YES momentarily.
For more betting on the substack: https://manifold.markets/Rodeo/will-the-experience-machines-substa-1d8199fca083
alright, March links were posted by EOD April 2: https://experiencemachines.substack.com/p/things-i-read-and-liked-in-march
Alright, thanks @DenisBaudouin for a quick 'NO'! Even getting to just 1 person betting against me makes this much more fun - hope others join in
@Rodeo ahah yes, I missed the 500M, so I was waiting for you to choose the sum ^^ (anyway I would have canceled my bet if you wanted to change it at 500)