@Jack1 How do you intend this to resolve if no famous person bets? From the price I'm assuming people are assuming NO

@Robincvgr https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/famous-person-market-prop-bets-add?nativePlatform=android&rand=0.17443328420095044#el5gzsyt6qa

@Quroe Oh yeah I see

I really hope this is a NO.

@Quroe Likewise, and I expect it will be, but I think this is a useful question both as a barometer for drama and confusion, and as a way to hedge against it.

@moobunny (That is, I expect it will be a NO. I expect it won’t be re-resolved.)

@Robincvgr Is this strictly about if they reveal before the market closes? Or can this reference the state of the world after the main market resolution?

@Quroe The latter

@Robincvgr How long would this market option stay open for to capture that world state?

@Quroe uhh shit good question

do you have a suggestion

@Robincvgr Taking the former stance instead of the latter. 😄

@Robincvgr I think it would be smoother to run this market answer if it strictly asks if Cryptic reveals during the main market operation. Not after resolution.

Otherwise, we have to price in the probability of the market flipping its resolution, and that seems a bit bass ackwards.

@Quroe I understand your point, but tbh the latter is what I intended, and I guess I'll arbitrarily pick "before Mar 15 (PT)" is a reasonable time limit. If anyone feels cheated by that I'll refund them

@Robincvgr That is also fair!

Do they have to be famous before main market resolution? Or can they become famous after main market resolution?

Like, for example, if they did not have a qualifying Wikipedia article during the main market, but it became qualifying after that with an edit.

@Quroe only if they were famous during the main market

@Jack1 The? Or a?

(Is this conditional? Does it resolve N/A if the main market resolves NO?)

@Quroe The person who causes the market to resolve has the largest profit. So if no famous person bets resolves no

I have a weak, non-zero amount of insider info on this one. I do not plan to share it.