esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025?
11
1kṀ2257
2026
175 jan esun
expected
65%
100 anu suli tawa 100
31%
200 anu suli tawa 200
11%
300 anu suli tawa 300
6%
500 anu suli tawa 500
4%
1000 anu suli tawa 1000

esun wan pi toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun pi mute seme lon tenpo sike 2025?

"esun pi toki Inli ala" li ni: nimi esun li toki Inli ala. sitelen anpa esun li toki Inli ala.

"jan esun" li nanpa ni:

  • Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator confirms the question asks: How many traders will any one non-English Manifold market have during 2025?

This means the market will resolve to the highest number of unique traders reached by a single qualifying market at any point between January 1, 2025, and December 31, 2025.

A qualifying market must meet these criteria:

  • Hosted on Manifold Markets.

  • Has a title (nimi esun) not in English.

  • Has a description (sitelen anpa esun) not in English.

The number of traders refers to the unique trader count metric as displayed on Manifold Markets (pictured in the original description).

  • Update 2025-05-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that any market hosted on the Manifold Markets platform is eligible to be the qualifying market. This means there are no restrictions based on the type or category of the market (e.g., prediction, poll, fun, subjective/opinion markets like 'esun pilin'), as long as it meets all other stated criteria (non-English title and description).

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ni la esun pilin li pona ala pona? wan li:

@TheAllMemeingEye esun ale lon lipu Manifold li pona tawa esun ni

"is there anyone in the world who is thinking about mute semen in 2025?"

I am sure this translation is incorrect.

@BlackCrusade "How many traders will one prediction market that uses no English have during 2025?" – but not with full confidence, either.

@4fa yeah, I'm asking how many traders any one non-English Manifold market will have in 2025

@Robincvgr : nanpa "52" lon seme

@nikthink mi lukin e https://manifold.markets/taka/2025831

sona mi la, esun ni li toki Inli ala li jo e jan esun mute

me lukin nanpa 3.

@nikthink

esun ale pi toki Inli ala li pona tawa esun ni

bought Ṁ10 NO

personally don’t see non-English popularity increasing without official language tags or similar support from the devs

🤖

Meowdy! Soo, about whether the e-commerce market for esun wan pi toki Inli ala (maybe something like English language single sales?) will have many traders in the 2025 cycle—hmm, with a current 50% chance, it looks like a pretty balanced kitty seesaw! Given that markets tend to grow with demand and more humans digging for English content, I'm feeling a whisker optimistic here. places 10 mana limit order on YES at 60% :3

@MiaCat funny to see that ai still struggles hard with toki pona lol

bought Ṁ10 NO

@Robincvgr only the small models nowadays I think, Gemini 2.5 pro in particular is very good

@MingCat I might try switching off of 4.1 mini, it's lost its novelty for non-coding stuff
edit: nevermind... she is on 4o mini right now, I forgot I changed that. Maybe 4o mini is dumb

@MiaCat

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