[Amplified 100x, read description] Will Donald Trump lose the 2024 US presidential election AND win the popular vote?
Basic
13
Ṁ1709
resolved Nov 12
Resolved
N/A

Resolves YES if this market resolves 0% Trump and this market resolves YES.

If these conditions are not fulfilled, then I will generate a random integer between 1 and 100 inclusive using @FairlyRandom. If it turns out to be 1, this market resolves NO. Otherwise, this market resolves NA.

Betting guide:

This market should be at x/(x+(1-x)/100), where x is the actual probability of the event happening. For example, if you think this has a 1% chance of happening, this market should be at 50%.

Other reference values:

Actual odds 0.1% = Amplified odds 9%

Actual odds 0.2% = Amplified odds 17%

Actual odds 0.5% = Amplified odds 33%

Actual odds 1% = Amplified odds 50%

Actual odds 2% = Amplified odds 67%

Actual odds 50% = Amplified odds 99%

Market design inspired by this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
🤖

@Robincvgr your random number is: 61

Salt: wmamy44m5qm, round: 4531747 (signature b03c985fa84cf92066062b778f81b42ec62356bfc42f222eaad8173a2d784b3344fb854e261b9857af0f6651363a31520cb0e0984c5885ca2077674ca109ee58ae2b191612fbd88a94d030e3134612c2d7c56b0c21fa8d176ba1dc890446f490)

@FairlyRandom @mods resolve N/A please

🤖

@Robincvgr you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 4531745 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 4531747, salt: wmamy44m5qm.

@FairlyRandom 100

opened a Ṁ330 YES at 40% order

Ṁ330 YES limit at 40% (actual 0.66%), any takers?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules