Will we discover aliens before AGI?
32
1kṀ12942100
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Aliens = alien life that originates from or lives on another planet. MUST HAVE PROOF.
AGI = Artificial General Intelligence, non-living intelligence created by us that equals or surpasses human intelligence in every respect. (Since human intelligence is not always at the same level, we're talking roughly equal here.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
I'm betting NO on this one because it specifically states "lives on another planet" (i.e. within this Universe.) I expect that the resolver will hold to this exact interpretation if the truth about how the non-human intelligence exists is more complicated.
Related questions
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2027?
38% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
17% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
47% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
39% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
57% chance
Will we get AGI before we discover alien life?
85% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
15% chance
Will we get AGI before 1M humanoid robots are manufactured?
64% chance
Will AI create the first AGI?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
61% chance