Anywhere in the world (bans of all porn do not count).
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The UK might be the first jurisdiction to do this, though their law presents something of an edge case for this market. The proposed law doesn't criminalize deepfake porn, but only criminalizes nonconsensually distributing deepfake porn. The base offense carries a sentence of six months in jail. The other question is whether the bill passes before EoY.
News article: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-66021643
Letter from the UK Secretary of State for Justice about the proposed law: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/40707/documents/198387/default/
Worth pointing out that deepfake porn is probably already illegal in many countries because you are stealing the "likeness" of the person.
https://www.dmlp.org/legal-guide/using-name-or-likeness-another#:~:text=%22Likeness%22%20refers%20to%20a%20visual,the%20eyes%20of%20the%20public.
@Shai That's a good point, but that page refers to a tort (something that you can sue another person over), not a crime. I will update the question to make it clear that I was specifically thinking of bans using a criminal law.
@KongoLandwalker I can answer question 2 since I believe it should be.
It should be banned because if a woman has a good reputation, and then someone makes a deepfake video of her having sex, that shows her (AI-imagined) private parts etc., that could be very humiliating and violating to her and destroy her (sexual) reputation, in the way an obviously-fake photoshopped - or the video equivalent of photoshopped - video wouldn't, because people would be able to see that it was fake. For the worst case, imagine a young virgin, or a Muslim woman in a culture where having the wrong sexual morality can get a woman stripped and raped as men think she is a prostitute.
@RobinGreen well. I think those communities with wrong sexual moralities are a bigger problem themselves, not the possibility of some videos.
@RobinGreen In the west, It's taboo to say that a woman's sexual reputation is harmed by videos of her having sex.
@Shai I don't think it is taboo to say so. It depends on which community she is from, to some extent. If she is from a Muslim community or a rural community in the Basque Country in Spain, sex outside of marriage may be frowned upon in those communities. Or, if there were lots of different deepfakes of the same woman, she could get a false reputation as a slut or as a porn star, no matter which community she came from.
@KongoLandwalker Well but don't forget the other parts of my answer! Even if no-one in the woman's social network thinks having sex outside of marriage, or making a video of it, is shameful per se, she may still be embarrassed and feel violated by the thought of others seeing "her" having sex and thinking it is real, and thinking the AI-generated nude body is really her body.
@RobinGreen I think that deepfakes, due to their easy construction, will be so popular in couple years that 1) it's helpless to prevent, 2) people will become desensitized to such videos and not pay attention and never trust.
@RobinGreen it is literally easier to make a deepfake than to organise a filming session. So there will sometime appear a presumption: any video is deepfake until the opposite is proven.
@KongoLandwalker I am unsure but also think it will be like that, it will be so easy to do it that we will get deepfake porn of almost everybody known, and then nobody will care anymore.
It has the advantage that we don’t spend a lot of resources on trying to stop something that seems quite hard to stop, and it works even if the video is real (because everybody will just assume it is false and don’t care).
Subsidising this because I think it is an important issue that needs action taken and would be interested in getting more bets.
Could you provide a few more details on the resolution criteria though? For example, a couple of months ago the UK criminalised non-consensual deep fakes in general (not just in porn).
@DavidChee I made a similar market about whether the US in particular will criminalise deep-fake porn
@DavidChee Actually, there was an amendment to this bill to make it illegal, but the bill has not yet become law https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3137 That would count. Anything that bans deepfakes used in porn and possibly other things as well, unless it is a ban of all porn, would resolve as Yes.
@RobinGreen ah gotcha hadnt realised it hadnt passed yet. Seems more likely than the current market rate then!
(Also commenting from other acc bc switched devices)