This market is around the possibility of children conceived deceitfully by Cheliax while Keltham was their unwitting prisoner.
This is not particularly limited to any specific Cheliax plot - if Keltham accidentally got Yaisa pregnant and didn't abort it, that counts.
N/A on abandonment. If the world ends before they would get ensouled, that's a no.
Close date updated to 2023-03-17 3:59 pm
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ705 | |
| 2 | Ṁ501 | |
| 3 | Ṁ238 | |
| 4 | Ṁ67 | |
| 5 | Ṁ55 |
https://www.glowfic.com/replies/1918976#reply-1918976
So now, Cheliax can infer: Given that Keltham seemed to know about the breeding program in the first place, Keltham almost certainly knows he has remaining children in Cheliax.
Keltham knows he couldn't get them all.
(disclaimer: is the apparent surface level of an ilani plot, which isn’t to say it’s false)
Think this is 25% because in some sense the whole recent thing with Abrogail ~ends that plot. Conspiracy!Keltham solved the problem in Conspiracy, and the problem's interaction with the story is over (I don't think Keltham feels that time pressure any more after his conversation with Carissa; and Abrogail has felt her regret for tempting the Tropes), so it feels weird if the problem comes back for Actual!Keltham (though I expect Actual!Keltham solves it through different means).
@Tetraspace Huh, I'm betting YES on nearly the same logic as you. It looks to me like Keltham doesn't feel time pressure any more because he anticipates either destroying Golarion entirely or forcing Pharasma to terms, and in the second of these cases it seems likely to me that many of his children will end up ensouled? The 'Keltham destroys everything' market https://manifold.markets/SamuelMillerick/will-planecrash-have-a-bad-ending-w is at 16%, and after the recent interaction with Abrogail it seems unlikely to me that both of those resolve NO.
@AndrewHyer Wasn’t the deal that people could choose to wait until the world was fixed and then have the kids? Seems like could be YES even with basically a total victory