Will "mitochondrial endosymbiosis" be considered the great filter in the fermi paradox in 2050?
12
Ṁ1333
2050
18%
chance

This question resolves to my (or whatever judge continues resolving questions on Manifold's) response to the question "Will "mitochondrial endosymbiosis" , as defined by Nick Hall in 2014, be considered by the consensus of scientists the great filter in the Fermi paradox in 2050?", in 2050"?

This question inspired by this twitter post.

Nick Hall, 2014, "Bioenergetic Constraints on the Evolution of Complex Life": https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3996473/

If it come down to it, "consensus" is defined as ">80% of people with credentials that would let them get employed (be found in <50% of job postings) in a field relevant to this question".

Disputes will be interpreted as best I (or the resolver) interprets them.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ250 NO

Even leaving aside the question of whether or not its true, consensuses in these sorts of fields are rare.

Should be much lower, but 2050