Basic
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32%
The nature of intelligent life is to destroy itself
0.1%
Natural disasters destroy intelligent life
49%
Intelligent life is evolutionarily extremely rare
0.7%
Other intelligent life is too different to recognize
2%
Intelligent life is not evolutionarily rare, but we're the first ones here
3%
Other intelligent life is hiding / communication is dangerous
13%
Intelligent life inevitably loses interest in outside contact
Resolves when a solution to the Fermi Paradox is widely agreed upon in the scientific community in response to empirical evidence.
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hard steps:
1. getting a planet which is sufficiently massive to retain hydrogen for billions of years, but has a thin enough atmosphere for photosynthesis (we lucked out with the Theia impact shedding most of Earth's early atmosphere), and orbits at a reasonable distance from a stable star.
2. abiogenesis
3. eukaryotes
4. multicellularity
5. evolving enough intelligence to invent radio and build big transmitters before contraception/welfare/medicine induced dysgenics or nukes destroy that capability.