What will the Human Development Index (HDI) of Niger be in 2030, assuming the (current) coup succeeds?
Mini
5
27
2031
36%
chance

This question will resolve N/A if the coup in Niger fails, as defined in this question.

Else, this question will resolve to the percentage equipment HDI of Niger as found in the 2030 UN Human Development Report (rounded as neccessary). For reference, the current value (2021) is 0.400, so if this market were for 2021 instead of 2030, I would resolve it at 40%.

On wierd edge cases (feel free to ask more in the comments):

  1. If a significant (>25% of the population as best I can easily estimate it) portion of the current country of Niger is absorbed/occupied by its neighbors, I will likely N/A this market. Else, I will use the remaining portions HDI to resolve this market.

  1. If there is a civil war in Niger and both sides become seperately recorded by the UN, I will resolve this to a simple average (not population weighted, for my sanity's sake) of the two.

The purpose of this question is to establish if it is better or worse for the average person in niger to have the coup succeed/fail. I will interpret edge cases in the fashion I think best fulfills that goal. I will neither bet in this market, nor attempt to profit off of it any way apart from trader bonuses.

This market will close at the end of 2030, as the UN is generally slow to release their reports. If they release it sooner, I will resolve this market sooner.

See also the sibling market:

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