This question will resolve to yes if the military coup is able to consolidate reasonable political power in the next month, avoiding both infighting and a civil war.
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@PeterBuyukliev You cannot judge how much power they have consolidated without seeing what the next few days bring.
@parhizj From the market creator.
I see where you are coming from! The initial description provided a month timeline to judge the coups success, which is longer than the timeline used in most academic etc. databases - which is one week. I think trying to wait and see if the coup lasts after this month/the market closes opens the resolution up to continuous arguments about future stability/uncertainty, especially given the region - so I will stick with resolving as soon as the market closes based on the current situation. If the coup regime's collapse seems imminent shortly following the market's conclusion, due to an invasion that is ongoing etc., then there will be a discussion before resolution.
Now that it looks like the military intervention is less likely, it seems Tinubu is trying to rewrite history to seem like he was against invading Niger all along.
https://www.rfi.fr/fr/afrique/20230823-la-c%C3%A9d%C3%A9ao-poursuit-des-pr%C3%A9paratifs-pour-une-%C3%A9ventuelle-intervention-militaire-au-niger
Quoting (google translate):
The military leaders of the standby force are formal, they have "not received any counter-order " for the military intervention in Niamey, according to a senior officer. Clearly, the option of force to restore constitutional order is still relevant, maintained and programmed, reports our correspondent in Cotonou, Jean-Luc Aplogan .
According to several confidences, the heads of the armies are currently managing the deployment of the troops . In this set-up phase, the countries far from Niger have agreed to send their contingents to the countries bordering Niger, selected as a base. This step would be imminent, according to a well-informed source: men and logistics could be transported by air or by sea.
The latest information indicates that the standby force of ECOWAS will be made up of soldiers from Benin, Nigeria, Senegal, Côte d'Ivoire, Guinea-Bissau, and we are now talking about the contribution of Ghana.
Algerian national radio reported on Monday that "France is preparing to carry out its threats against the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland (CNSP) in Niger, by carrying out a military intervention in the event that President Mohamed Bazoum is not released."
"The military intervention is said to be imminent, with all the military apparatus in place," said the national radio station, adding "Algeria, which has always rejected the use of force, has given a negative response to the French request to fly over its national territory to attack Niger. Algiers' response is firm and unequivocal."
@parhizj so maybe France put a feeler out if they could hypothetically do it as part of contingency planning, or else, the report is outright lie ("unnamed sources" always is suspicious). I don't see what facts on the ground French planes could realistically change anyway.
@AlQuinn The French would deny this report if it was true or false. They either didn’t ask or can’t admit they asked to save face or operational security.
@JohnSmith9249 In the article: "Faced with Algeria's refusal, France asked Morocco to authorize its military aircraft to fly over its territory."
That doesn't make any sense, since going through Morocco, (a country hated by Algeria), means that Niger can't be reached from France, except by flying over hostile Mali.
ECOWAS delegation met with coup leader and ousted president Bazoum yesterday:
https://www.indiatoday.in/world/story/west-african-bloc-meets-nigers-ousted-president-junta-leader-in-niamey-2423801-2023-08-20
Niger's military discloses details on transition plan:
"He said the principles of the transition would be decided within the next 30 days as part of a national dialogue hosted by the junta and the transition itself “should last no longer than three years.”
Together I take this as more evidence this sounds like the coup will drag on beyond August (and no news of any internal conflict).
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/world/niger-coup-return-to-democracy-intl-hnk/index.html
ECOWAS has already decided on D-Day for a military intervention in Niger (1), in addition to rejecting the need for UN or UA approval (2).
(2) https://twitter.com/descifraguerra/status/1692296500078911970?t=SuFO7nBtOVx3h1WKWld5Ng&s=19
If the military intervention does not occur in the next 7 days, even with these warnings, would you consider the coup's political power consolidated or is this "a legitimate and significant challenge to the government"?
@Skr Also, just a heads up, French news articles will probably be biased towards ECOWAS bringing in military
@ShadowyZephyr A threat of military intervention is not sufficient to resolve NO, ie say the coup has failed. At the current status quo the coup is a success, they took control of the Niger government and state and have consolidated considerable political power - public support, backing of the military, international recognition, and no prominent defections.
@JohnSmith9249 I also agree with JRP, the threat of ECOWAS military intervention is largely empty at the current moment considering the rebuke of the African Union and political opposition in the Nigeria parliament. Diplomatic efforts are still underway and no actual military force mobilization has begun, sufficient to deploy to Niger.
@JohnSmith9249 Well, I agree that it should not be resolved as No only because of that, but I don't think that it can be considered a consolidated power when a group of neighboring countries have even (supposedly) decided on the day of the intervention.
Imo the most prudent thing to do would be to wait for ECOWAS to reject the military intervention or something like that.
In any case, thanks for answering.
@Skr I see where you are coming from! The initial description provided a month timeline to judge the coups success, which is longer than the timeline used in most academic etc. databases - which is one week. I think trying to wait and see if the coup lasts after this month/the market closes opens the resolution up to continuous arguments about future stability/uncertainty, especially given the region - so I will stick with resolving as soon as the market closes based on the current situation. If the coup regime's collapse seems imminent shortly following the market's conclusion, due to an invasion that is ongoing etc., then there will be a discussion before resolution.