Roughly how many days will @levifinkelstein be banned between now and 2023 end?
19
950แน€3801
resolved Jan 1
100%94%
28 to 55 days
0.8%
1-7 days
4%
8 to 27 days
0.3%
56 to 112 days
0.2%
113 or greater days.
0.4%
0 days

At the end of the year, I will request @DavidChee (or another admin) respond with how many days Levi is banned. This market will resolve to the bucket/answer containing their response. If they do not answer within 2 weeks. If they do not respond by the end of the two weeks, I will resolve this market to the bucket containing my best estimate of the total number of days he was banned. Feel free to post supporting evidence in the comments in the mean time.

Note: this market was made in response to @DavidChee stating that he will start temporarily banning @levifinkelstein per each new breaking of the rules.

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I am resolving this to "28-55" as described in the conversation below.

If anyone contests this, I will follow through on messaging David. I just figure he's quite busy right now and if everyone agrees there is no point wasting his time.

It looks like he was banned for 6 days starting on July 30th, which was after the creation of this market.

He's now banned today, and there are 47 days left in the year. So the minimum is now 7, and the maximum is now 53 if my math is right?

@Joshua I'm quite happy to accept that as the answer if we are confident he was not banned in between. I started this market directly in response to frustration about him in late July.

@RobertCousineau I searched for markets on the subject and that's all I found, but I could be missing some? I think we know for sure this can't resolve 1-7, but if I missed some and he's banned the rest of the year it could theoretically resolve to 56 or more.

I'm reasonably confident there was just the one ban.

@Joshua is it public info why he is banned?

If they do not answer within 2 weeks, I will N/A this market.

Not really happy with this resolution criteria. It should be possible to resolve based on tracking down announcements of bans, or based on writing a script to check the profile every day.

Yeah - I reread that right after posting and was debating editing (which I will now attempt to find a way to do). For anyone who feels wronged by this (future) edit, feel free to request I reimburse you proportional to the level of wronged you feel. I warn, I'll probably be curious why you feel wronged though :P

Do you know if there are reasonably easy ways to track what bans have been issued? I couldn't do something like a daily script since I would have needed to do that at market start, and I doubt manifold is put together enough to consistently announce new bans when they occur.

https://discordapp.com/channels/915138780216823849/959728429295616061/1174027063628415097

@RobertCousineau There's an "edit description" button below the description.

Yeah, there's no easy way, but there are plenty of people who can probably figure it out and provide an answer.

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