H-1B selection becomes wage-based rather than lottery-based by January 2027
8
100Ṁ141Jan 1
29%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Market resolves YES if USCIS officially implements a wage-based H-1B selection system replacing the current lottery system. Resolves NO if the lottery system remains in place.
Resolution source: USCIS H-1B Electronic Registration Process updates (https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/temporary-workers/h-1b-specialty-occupations)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
$100k fee imposed on H1B Visas?
19% chance
Federal court blocks Trump's $100,000 H-1B visa fee by October 15, 2025?
16% chance
H1B Visa Fee Policy Sentiment?
27% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2026?
5% chance
Will the H-1B country caps be raised or eliminated in 2025?
13% chance
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31?
17% chance
All 85,000 H1-B lottery slots for the next cycle filled despite $100k fee?
47% chance
Will the H1B visa cap be raised (above 85000) for fiscal year 2027?
17% chance
Will the H-1B visa cap increase by at least 50% or be removed before Fiscal Year 2027?
14% chance
Revenue from H1b visa fees, 2026?
5,500