One test trip counts Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - Transfers: If a test trip requires transferring to a local train (e.g., at San Jose), it does not count. (AI summary of creator comment) Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Shared tracks: HSR trains running on shared tracks (with non-HSR trains) for part of the trip is acceptable and counts as completed.

Probably not — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 20% chance (24 traders, as of Oct 13, 2026).

Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040?

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Will the California HSR from LA to SF be completed by 2040?

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2040

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One test trip counts

Update 2025-14-01 (PST): - Transfers: If a test trip requires transferring to a local train (e.g., at San Jose), it does not count. (AI summary of creator comment)

Update 2026-01-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Shared tracks: HSR trains running on shared tracks (with non-HSR trains) for part of the trip is acceptable and counts as completed.

California High-Speed Rail Project

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 1.0% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 1%. The authority's own 2039 Phase 1 date assumed full funding in 2026, which never came. About $90B is still unfunded, the Central Valley segment itself may run out of cash in 2027, and the mountain tunnels haven't started. An LA–SF train by 2040 is very unlikely.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

bought Ṁ34 NO

/JimAusman/will-the-sf-to-la-segment-of-the-hs

How does this resolve if the HSR trains have to run on non-HSR tracks for part of the trip?

@Martlet it’s fine if the tracks are shared but not if you have to transfer to a local non-HSR train for part of the trip.

I like trains

Just to clarify, does this mean a trip from central LA to central SF on a high speed train running solely on track that is part of the scope of the project?