What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?
➕
Plus
17
Ṁ3797
2028
50%
Secretary of Homeland Security:
50%
Director of National Intelligence:
48%
Attorney General:
47%
Director of Central Intelligence Agency:
46%
Secretary of Education:
46%
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development:
46%
Secretary of Defense:
45%
Director of the Office of Management and Budget:
45%
Secretary of the Treasury:
45%
Secretary of Agriculture:
45%
Secretary of Commerce:
45%
Secretary of Labor:
45%
Secretary of Health and Human Services:
45%
Secretary of Transportation:
45%
Secretary of Energy:
45%
Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency:
45%
Ambassador to the United Nations:
45%
Secretary of State:
45%
Secretary of Veteran Affairs:
45%
United States Trade Representative:

Begins on January 20, 2025 after President Trump is sworn in.

The cabinet official must either be fired or resign during Trumps term as President. A death will not count.

I will fill in the name next to the cabinet position once a person officially assumes the office.

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@ReeMARKable

I'm really curious why the outlook for CoS is especially grim

@AlexBokov In my personal opinion there are probably two reasons: First, the Chief of Staff is arguably the second most important position in the White House. They run the day to day show and is responsible for coordinating amongst the various White House officials, advisors, politicians, military leadership etc. The Chief of Staff is a highly stressful position. If you look back at recent history with the exception of Biden who only has had 1 in 4 years, the majority of Presidents have had multiple COS during the course of their administration. President Obama had 5 in 8 years, Bush had 2 in 8 years, Clinton had 4 in 8 years, and Bush Senior had 3 in 4 years.

Second, Trumps first term was anything but normal. He went through 4 COS in 4 years and his administration was a revolving door of officials coming and going. From past officials accounts he is difficult to work with and as we all know likes to say and do things his way. I would say Susan Wiles did a great job managing Trump during his campaign but given the initial stress that comes with the position and then you pile on the extra stress that comes with managing Trump, I don’t see her sticking around for the full term.

@ReeMARKable

Got it. So it's basically like teaching Defence Against the Dark Arts at Hogwarts or being a drummer for Spinal Tap.

Lol. And, since the time when I asked this question, a bunch of the other cabinet positions got voted up far above Chief of Staff.

People: stop updating on my clueless questions! I'm asking them because I am in fact clueless.

@ReeMARKable does this only cover confirmed or recess appointed cabinet picks or does it cover acting secretaries and acting department heads? I.e. if the person who is deputy attorney general becomes acting attorney general and Trump fires them do they count?

@AaronSimansky Good question. This market will only cover the man/woman who officially assumes the office by senate confirmation or recess appointment. Acting secretaries will not qualify. So to answer your question if the Deputy Attorney General becomes the acting Attorney General and gets fired or resigns, it would not count.

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