Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket
9
1kṀ1442
2026
85%
Israel-Premier Tech voluntarily ends their partnership with Israel
60%
Another WorldTour cycling race in Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests
48%
A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so
41%
A WorldTour cycling race outside of Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests
40%
The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France takes place in Spain, but at least one stage is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests
24%
The Grand Depart of the 2026 Tour de France is moved outside of Spain
19%
The organizer or overseeing government of a WorldTour race bars Israel-Premier Tech from participating, in contradiction to the regulations of the UCI
14%
A significant cycling race (.1 or higher) is boycotted by at least 25% of participating riders because of the participation of Israel-Premier Tech
13%
The Israel-Premier Tech team dissolves or completely changes ownership
9%
The UCI takes action to sanction Israel-Premier Tech, such as barring them from UCI races or requiring them to end their partnership with Israel or remove Israel from the title of their team

During the 2025 edition of La Vuelta a España, multiple stages were disrupted by protestors protesting Israel's actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the participation of the Israel-Premier Tech team in the race. The UCI issued a statement after the race condemning the protests and criticizing the Spanish government's handling of the situation, while the Spanish government called for the Israel-Premier Tech team to be sanctioned and affirmed the rights of its citizens to protest. This is potentially an ongoing situation with no clear resolution as of yet, so I created this market to track some of the possible ways this situation could develop over the next year.

For the purposes of this market:
- A WorldTour race is any race classified by the UCI as 1.UWT, 1.WWT, or any stage of a race classified as 2.UWT or 2.WWT, or any race of the UCI Road World Championship.
- For a race to be disrupted, either the stage's route must be modified or shortened as a direct result of the protests, or at least one rider must be injured as a direct result of the actions of the protestors. As far as I am aware, this definition would include Stages 11, 15, 16, 18, and 21 of this year's Vuelta.

This market will close after the 2026 UCI cycling season, and all events that have not occurred at that time will resolve NO.

Feel free to ask any clarifying questions or add answers of your own.


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sold Ṁ55 YES

I missunderstood the news. The Israeli-Canadian owner Sylviam Adams will no longer speak on behalf of the team, but the team ownership will not change. So, I sell my recent bet.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/moving-away-from-its-current-israeli-identity-israel-premier-tech-to-change-name-and-rebrand-for-2026-with-owner-sylvan-adams-stepping-back/

I'm a bit silly... I bought YES on a single answer when I read the very fresh news, and I forgot to buy NO on many others which are applicable

bought Ṁ10 NO

I kinda feel like races where they have to neutralize the whole race to clear the protest should also count, even if they still ride the full course? Like sometimes happens in France.

@Eliza My thinking is that the actions of the protestors in the 2025 Vuelta constitute a more significant disruption than we typically see from protests of the type you mentioned in France or elsewhere. I don’t think there’s usually major media reporting or conflicting statements from the UCI, race organizers and overseeing governments when a stage of the Tour de France is paused for 30 minutes.

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