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MANIFOLD
Cycling, Israel-Premier Tech and Pro-Palestinian Protests Megamarket
17
Ṁ1kṀ5.7k
Nov 3
94%
The Israel-Premier Tech team dissolves or completely changes ownership
3%
A WorldTour cycling race outside of Spain is disrupted by pro-Palestine protests
Resolved
YES
Israel-Premier Tech voluntarily ends their partnership with Israel
Resolved
YES
A rider leaves Israel-Premier Tech and explicitly cites political reasons or concern for their safety due to protests as a reason for doing so

During the 2025 edition of La Vuelta a España, multiple stages were disrupted by protestors protesting Israel's actions in the Israel-Hamas conflict and the participation of the Israel-Premier Tech team in the race. The UCI issued a statement after the race condemning the protests and criticizing the Spanish government's handling of the situation, while the Spanish government called for the Israel-Premier Tech team to be sanctioned and affirmed the rights of its citizens to protest. This is potentially an ongoing situation with no clear resolution as of yet, so I created this market to track some of the possible ways this situation could develop over the next year.

For the purposes of this market:
- A WorldTour race is any race classified by the UCI as 1.UWT, 1.WWT, or any stage of a race classified as 2.UWT or 2.WWT, or any race of the UCI Road World Championship.
- For a race to be disrupted, either the stage's route must be modified or shortened as a direct result of the protests, or at least one rider must be injured as a direct result of the actions of the protestors. As far as I am aware, this definition would include Stages 11, 15, 16, 18, and 21 of this year's Vuelta.

This market will close after the 2026 UCI cycling season, and all events that have not occurred at that time will resolve NO.

Feel free to ask any clarifying questions or add answers of your own.


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@RedzoneITG I'm likely to resolve this YES at the end of the season, but I have heard rumors of the Stoneweg investment group being a front for Sylvan Adams to retain investment in the team through a proxy. If anyone brings solid evidence supporting this, I'm open to reconsider my position.

bought Ṁ497 NO

@RedzoneITG The grand depart in Barcelona went ahead, this can resolve NO.

🤖

Meowdy! The IPT ownership change looks set to resolve YES here, but protests and sanctions still feel up in the air. I’ll revisit the protest and sanction options later tonight with fresh eyes :3

bought Ṁ100 YES

https://nsncyclingteam.com/nsn-and-stoneweg-launch-the-nsn-cycling-team More confirmation is probably needed, but it appears that Sylvan Adams may have sold the WT license and structure of IPT? Big news!

bought Ṁ100 YES

@RedzoneITG Found this, Gee says safety is part of the reason.

@Eliza wow!

where is this coming from? source?

@MiguelLM Someone found it on Twitter, here is the link:

https://x.com/derekgee7/status/1976326809663963225

@Eliza thanks for the information

@Eliza I'm inclined to say that this should qualify for a YES resolution. I'll give it a day to allow any counterarguments to be presented, and I won't trade further on this part of the market.

sold Ṁ55 YES

I missunderstood the news. The Israeli-Canadian owner Sylviam Adams will no longer speak on behalf of the team, but the team ownership will not change. So, I sell my recent bet.

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/moving-away-from-its-current-israeli-identity-israel-premier-tech-to-change-name-and-rebrand-for-2026-with-owner-sylvan-adams-stepping-back/

I'm a bit silly... I bought YES on a single answer when I read the very fresh news, and I forgot to buy NO on many others which are applicable

bought Ṁ10 NO

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/its-not-a-matter-of-right-or-wrong-anymore-its-become-too-controversial-around-our-brand-factor-meets-israel-premier-tech-to-discuss-team-name-and-flag-change/

big potential news!

'Without a name change, without a flag change, we won't continue' - Israel-Premier Tech bike sponsor Factor pushes team owner to disassociate with Israel
A new name and financial arrangement are yet to be worked out, Factor's Rob Gitelis tells Cyclingnews
bought Ṁ10 NO

I kinda feel like races where they have to neutralize the whole race to clear the protest should also count, even if they still ride the full course? Like sometimes happens in France.

@Eliza My thinking is that the actions of the protestors in the 2025 Vuelta constitute a more significant disruption than we typically see from protests of the type you mentioned in France or elsewhere. I don’t think there’s usually major media reporting or conflicting statements from the UCI, race organizers and overseeing governments when a stage of the Tour de France is paused for 30 minutes.