Will US presidential election opinion polling for eventual runners correctly predict the result?

Question

This market determines if opinion polling for presidential elections will get it right. For this purpose we will evaluate all polls added to the wiki article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election

The page will be accessed the night before the election. And it will be compared to results later on.

We will only use polls for eventual runners. For instance, if it will be Biden vs Trump we won't use Biden vs deSantis polls.

Screenshot from 18th Jan:

[image]Also for reference MF market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 71% chance (4 traders, as of Mar 3, 2024).

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