Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027?
10
120Ṁ175Dec 31
79%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
Linked Questions:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?
60% chance
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench without any assistance, by 2028?
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028?
What will AI score on TheAgentCompany benchmark in early 2026?
50% chance
In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?
11/27/27
Will an AI system capable of doing 50% of knowledge job arrive by 2027?
21% chance
Will AI solve 100% of solvable MTurk problems by July 2028?
32% chance
Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?
50% chance
Will I believe my prediction about AI enabling more SWEs to solve less lucrative problems by shrinking team sizes to have been fulfilled by EoY 2030
68% chance
Will AGI be created before the beginning of 2050? (Definition: Autonomous system surpassing majority of economic tasks)
84% chance