There could be many potential reasons, one is that AGI could become extremely dominating militarily in a way that gives the state high (bargaining) powers

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at 11:59 PM PT, California has officially seceded from the United States or is otherwise formally recognized as an independent, sovereign nation-state separate from the United States federal government.

To resolve to YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met:

• De Facto Sovereignty (similar to Taiwan): California successfully establishes full military and political autonomy, completely voids U.S. federal jurisdiction over its territory, and obtains formal diplomatic recognition as an independent state from the United States or admission as a member state of the United Nations.

• Federal Recognition: The United States federal government officially recognizes California's secession and sovereign independence through an Act of Congress, a ratified constitutional amendment, or a binding Supreme Court ruling.

This market will resolve to NO if:

• California remains a state of the United States, even if it has negotiated special autonomous or devolved powers.

• Voters pass a non-binding ballot measure, plebiscite, or advisory referendum expressing support for independence (e.g., a "Calexit" initiative), or the state government forms a commission to study secession, but actual legal or de facto independence has not been fully realized by the cutoff date.

Sources of verification: Official documentation from the California Secretary of State, the U.S. Federal Government, the United Nations, or consensus reporting from major global press agencies (such as Associated Press, Reuters, or Bloomberg).

Background

The concept of California secession, often termed "Calexit", has been proposed through various initiatives. Under existing U.S. constitutional law, there is no unilateral path to secession. In the landmark 1869 case Texas v. White, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Union is indissoluble and that secession can only occur "through revolution, or through consent of the States".

This market evaluates whether geopolitical, economic, or technological disruptions—such as the localized concentration of highly advanced Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) granting significant bargaining power or defensive military advantages—could lead to California successfully establishing sovereign independence from the federal government by the end of 2035.